Galen Druke· Sep 23, 2024
Druke said Republicans are nearly certain to win the open West Virginia Senate seat, and that Trump is very likely to carry Montana, Ohio and West Virginia again at the presidential level.
“Republicans are almost certain to win West Virginia where Democrat turned independent Joe Manchin recently retired.”
said on air, transcribed by us · FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 4 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersSep 23, 2024
“all three of those states went for Trump in 2016 and 2020, and all appear very likely to go his way again this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-wv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- very likely
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in West Virginia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 42
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersSep 23, 2024
“all three of those states went for Trump in 2016 and 2020, and all appear very likely to go his way again this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- very likely
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 42
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersSep 23, 2024
“all three of those states went for Trump in 2016 and 2020, and all appear very likely to go his way again this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-oh
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- very likely
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 42
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersSep 23, 2024
“Republicans are almost certain to win West Virginia where Democrat turned independent Joe Manchin recently retired. That would bring the Senate to fifty fifty.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-wv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 106
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Independent
- in their words:
- almost certain to win West Virginia
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Jim Justice
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jim Justice
- days before the vote when called:
- 42
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.