Greg AumanSep 9, 2026

Auman argues no quarterback is likely to replicate Sam Darnold's turnaround this season, but names five candidates. They expect Miami to hold a very high pick in the 2027 draft, and thinks J.J. McCarthy will eventually be traded for a late-round pick or cut by the Vikings.

Published in writing · Fox SportsRead the original

1 of 1calls landed1 hit · 1 waiting

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 1 call

0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

1 of 2Settled1 still waiting

1Waitingnot graded yet

What Greg Auman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

You'd think he's either traded for a late-round pick or cut at some point unless Murray struggles so much that McCarthy gets another shot in Minnesota.

Greg Auman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: Fox Sports
The piece: Who's The Next Sam Darnold? 5 QBs That Fit The Bill For 2026 And Beyond
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 9
GradedSep 29

1J.J. McCarthy to move to Minnesota Vikings“He still has two years on his rookie contract, but you'd think he's either traded for a late-round pick or cut at some point unless Murray struggles so much that McCarthy gets another shot in Minnesota.”
2Miami Dolphins to pick “a very high draft pick”“the challenge for Willis in 2026 is to cobble together enough success that the Dolphins don't feel compelled to use what will be a very high draft pick in 2027 on a quarterback to replace him”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
J.J. McCarthy to move to Minnesota Vikings¹	Trade and Signing Calls	—	100	0	+200
Miami Dolphins to pick “a very high draft pick”²	Team Draft Slot Calls	—	—	—	—
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 waiting			100	0

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Trade and Signing Calls J.J. McCarthy Minnesota Vikings
J.J. McCarthy to move to Minnesota Vikings
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2026
claimed:
he leaves
was with:
MIN
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
reported:
traded → NYG (from MIN)
settled by:
a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he stays where he is
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
2Team Draft Slot Calls Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins to pick “a very high draft pick”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?