David Axelrod· Nov 2, 2022

Axelrod treats Republican control of the House as settled and only the margin in doubt, sees a slight edge for Herschel Walker in Georgia's Senate race because of the national year, and expects Mike DeWine and Brian Kemp to win their governorships.

“I think we're probably all in agreement that it's a matter of margin and not outcome there.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Hacks On Tap · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 4 have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“DeWine, the governor, is running away with the governor's race.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Mike DeWine
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Ohio gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike DeWine
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“you may see a, ultimately, a slight edge here, for Walker because of the year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“I'm gonna I'm gonna bet on a horse called Kemp there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 2, 2022
“we'll talk about the house later, but we... I think we're probably all in agreement that it's a matter of margin and not outcome there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
101
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.