Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Jeff CavanaughJan 16, 2026

Jeff made their divisional-round picks: Denver over Buffalo, Seattle over San Francisco, Houston over New England, and the Rams over Chicago. They also guessed Clemson corner Avion Terrell will weigh around 180 pounds when measured at the combine.

Said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled
72Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
73.1A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5 of 5Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Jeff Cavanaugh said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
But, eventually, I settled on, yes. I will take Denver.
Jeff Cavanaugh, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)
The episode
Cowboys Mock Draft Roundup: Who Is the Best Pick at No. 12? | DLLS Cowboys Podcast
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidJan 16
  2. GradedAug 14–18
  1. 1Combine Measurements“And he might be the lightest of the top corners. Like, I bet he's one eighty... When we're at the combine, they're gonna measure him.”
  2. 2Seattle Seahawks to beat niners“niners at Seahawks is tomorrow night, and I picked the Seahawks because I think the niners are beat up... And so I took Seattle.”
  3. 3Denver Broncos to beat Buffalo“it was so hard for me to pull the trigger on Bo Nicks over Josh Allen... But, eventually, I settled on, yes. I will take Denver.”
  4. 4Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears“Final playoff game of the weekend will be Sunday evening with your, Rams at Bears... On this one, I did take the quarterback”
  5. 5Houston Texans to beat Patriots“Texans at Patriots. I took the Texans, but that may be recency bias... But I'm taking the Texans' defense to beat... The Patriots.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“And he might be the lightest of the top corners. Like, I bet…”1Combine Measurements18659.9165.46−5.55
Seattle Seahawks to beat niners2Game Outcome Picks—1001000
Denver Broncos to beat Buffalo3Game Outcome Picks—1001000
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears4Game Outcome Picks—1000+100
Houston Texans to beat Patriots5Game Outcome Picks—0100−100
5 calls · 3 hits · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled7273.1

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks and 1 combine measurement — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 72 out of 100, against 73.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Combine MeasurementsAvieon Terrell

    “And he might be the lightest of the top corners. Like, I bet he's one eighty... When we're at the combine, they're gonna measure him.”

    What happened186called 180
    59.91Close · naive 65.46
    59.91this call65.46a naive guess−5.55worse than naive1difficulty−5.55skill
    How this was scored
    off:
    6
    drill:
    weight lbs
    naive:
    the average CB (190.96, from 240 results)
    scale:
    credit halves every 8.12 — one standard deviation for a CB
    skill:
    −5.55
    player:
    Avieon Terrell
    result:
    186
    season:
    2025
    combine year:
    2026
    accuracy:
    59.91
    baseline:
    65.46
    they said:
    180
    sigmas out:
    0.74
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.

    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks to beat niners

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Jan 17): Seahawks by 6.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 72%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    6-41
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos to beat Buffalo

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill

    Closing line (Jan 18): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (64%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans

    Houston Texans to beat Patriots

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill

    Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3 · underdog pick, Texans 38%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    16-28
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    72naive 73.1

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these