Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 24, 2026

Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 7calls landed1 hit · 2 close calls · 4 misses · all settled

32.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls

34.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

7 of 7Settlednone still waiting

#49Nick Wright’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Nick Wright said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

The Broncos crowd and the Broncos defense carries them to a seventeen thirteen, seventeen fourteen type of victory.

Nick Wright, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: First Things First (podcast)
The episode: Patriots vs. Broncos, Rams vs. Seahawks, Most to Gain & Lose, Upset Alert and Nick’s Picks
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 23
GradedAug 13–17

1Los Angeles Rams to beat Seattle Seahawks“Rams went outright thirty one twenty. ... The Rams, record notwithstanding, have been the best team in are better than the Seattle Seahawks.”
2Los Angeles Rams 31 — Seattle Seahawks 20“Rams went outright thirty one twenty. Thirty one twenty.”
3Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl“Well, they're a game from the Super Bowl. So and I'm and I'm picking him to go to it. And even though they have a backup quarterback”
4Denver Broncos 17 — New England 16“17 Denver. 16 New England. Hard to get to 16, but they could do it. ... One touchdown, three field goals.”
5Denver Broncos to beat Patriots“I've got the Bronco. ... The Broncos crowd and the Broncos defense carries them to a seventeen thirteen, seventeen fourteen type of victory.”
6Matthew Stafford to win MVP“he's about to be named league MVP ... I think that if he wins this weekend, coach, and I'm right that he's gonna win the MVP”
7Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl“And so I just I I do believe the winner of this game is gonna win the Super Bowl, but I believe the Rams are the better team.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Los Angeles Rams to beat Seattle Seahawks¹	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−100
Los Angeles Rams 31 — Seattle Seahawks 20²	Score Predictions	—	33.33	95.3	−61.97
Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl³	Conference Champions	NE and SEA won	50	0	+50
Denver Broncos 17 — New England 16⁴	Score Predictions	—	45.24	47.69	−2.45
Denver Broncos to beat Patriots⁵	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	0	0
Matthew Stafford to win MVP⁶	Award Picks	Matthew Stafford won	100	0	+100
Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl⁷	Super Bowl Picks	SEA won it	0	0	0
7 calls · 1 hit · 2 close calls · 4 misses · all settled			32.7	34.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

7 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 2 score predictions, 1 award pick, 1 conference champion and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 32.7 out of 100, against 34.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to beat Seattle Seahawks
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
Closing line (Jan 25): Seahawks by 2.5 · underdog pick, Rams 44%.
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
27-31
skill:
−100
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams 31 — Seattle Seahawks 20
VerdictMiss
33.33Miss · naive 95.3
33.33this call95.3a naive guess−61.97worse than naive1difficulty−61.97skill
Closing line (Jan 25): Seahawks by 2.5, total 45.5 · this 31–20 calls a Rams win (by 11; the line gave the Rams 44%) and more points (51).
How this was scored
score:
27-31
skill:
−61.97
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
33.33
baseline:
95.3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
0
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
11
Think this is wrong?
3Conference Champions Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked DEN
50Close · naive 0
50this call0a naive guess50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
How this was scored
skill:
50
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
50
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
yes
Think this is wrong?
4Score Predictions Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos 17 — New England 16
VerdictClose
45.24Close · naive 47.69
45.24this call47.69a naive guess−2.45worse than naive1difficulty−2.45skill
Closing line (Jan 25): Patriots by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 17–16 calls a Broncos win (by 1; the line gave the Broncos about 1 in 3 (36%)) and fewer points (33).
How this was scored
score:
10-7
skill:
−2.45
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
45.24
baseline:
47.69
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
0
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
1
Think this is wrong?
5Game Outcome Picks Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to beat Patriots
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 25): Patriots by 3.5 · underdog pick, Broncos about 1 in 3 (36%).
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
10-7
skill:
0
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DEN
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
6Award Picks Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Matthew Stafford
season:
2025
who won:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
7Super Bowl Picks Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl
What happenedSEA won itpicked LAR
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champion:
SEA
runner up:
NE
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
32.7naive 34.7

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.
Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.
Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.
Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd believes Matt Stafford's public negotiation posturing means he ultimately stays in Los Angeles, and he flags Travis Hunter as a high draft pick who could underachieve because trying to play both cornerback and receiver full-time will hurt him.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Denver Broncos · Hit 98
Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.