Pat McAfee· Dec 5, 2025
Pat made his week 14 NFL slate picks, taking the Colts, Bills, Buccaneers, Ravens, Seahawks, Jets, Browns, Commanders, Broncos, Bears, Rams and Texans.
“I like the Cleveland Browns no matter what they're favored by, especially at home.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →
11 checkable claims — 11 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 11 have settled, averaging 36.4 out of 100, against 36.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
11 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsDec 5, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to beat Cardinals
“Let's go to the Rams and the Cardinals. I like the Rams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 45-17
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ARI
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensDec 5, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to beat Pittsburgh Steelers
“Alright. I'll take the Ravens. I'll bite.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 27-22
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksIndianapolis ColtsDec 5, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to beat Jacksonville Jaguars
“but I like the Indianapolis Colts. ... Give me the Indianapolis Colts favored by one and a half down there.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 19-36
- skill:
- -128
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsDec 5, 2025
New York Jets to beat Miami Dolphins
“I'll take the Jets plus three. I completely forgot about the Miami Dolphins team whenever they travel north of the Mason Dixon Line in the winter.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIA
- score:
- 34-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsDec 5, 2025
Chicago Bears to beat Packers
“Give me da bears.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 21-28
- skill:
- -128
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersDec 5, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat New Orleans Saints
“I like the, I like Tampa Bay Bucks at home. ... Me too.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NO
- score:
- 24-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansDec 5, 2025
Houston Texans to beat Kansas City Chiefs
“Give me the Houston Texans. That's a good football team representing the AFC South getting three and a half points.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 20-10
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksWashington CommandersDec 5, 2025
Washington Commanders to beat Minnesota Vikings
“I'll take Jaden over nine.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 0-31
- skill:
- -128
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksCleveland BrownsDec 5, 2025
Cleveland Browns to beat Tennessee Titans
“Tennessee Titans traveling into Cleveland. I like the Cleveland Browns no matter what they're favored by, especially at home.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- TEN
- score:
- 31-29
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CLE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CLE
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksDec 5, 2025
Seattle Seahawks to beat Falcons
“I like the Seattle Seahawks with whatever one we can get.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 37-9
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsDec 5, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Bengals
“I'll get the give me the Bills minus five and a half.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 34-39
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.