Connor Rogers· Sep 25, 2026
Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
“I think the Chiefs straight up run through the Dolphins' face and win by two touchdowns.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Seahawks at Commanders 48 calls
- Jets at Lions 12 calls
- Panthers at Browns 8 calls
- Titans at Giants 10 calls
- Chiefs at Dolphins 17 calls
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksNew York GiantsSep 25, 2026
New York Giants to beat Titans
“This is a bounce back game for the Giants... The Giants should win by field goal.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 7-12
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYG
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 25, 2026
Detroit Lions to beat Jets
“I like the Lions this week, Chris... I think the Jets lose by a touchdown.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 24-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksSep 25, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to beat commanders
“I have Seattle as well... So I just don't see how the commanders can slow Seattle down.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 31-33
- skill:
- -189
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- WAS
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 25, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Dolphins
“I think the Chiefs straight up run through the Dolphins' face and win by two touchdowns.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 24-10
- skill:
- 189
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksCarolina PanthersSep 25, 2026
Carolina Panthers to beat Browns
“I'm buying in on the Panthers being undervalued again... They can win this game by a field goal.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CLE
- score:
- 18-21
- skill:
- -189
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CLE
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.