Connor Rogers#32 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 25, 2026

Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 2 misses · all settled

60Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

80A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#32Connor Rogers’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Connor Rogers said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think the Chiefs straight up run through the Dolphins' face and win by two touchdowns.

Connor Rogers, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)
The episode: NFL Week 3 Picks; Falcons overrun Lambeau
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 25
PlayedSep 27
GradedSep 29

1New York Giants to beat Titans“This is a bounce back game for the Giants... The Giants should win by field goal.”
2Detroit Lions to beat Jets“I like the Lions this week, Chris... I think the Jets lose by a touchdown.”
3Seattle Seahawks to beat commanders“I have Seattle as well... So I just don't see how the commanders can slow Seattle down.”
4Kansas City Chiefs to beat Dolphins“I think the Chiefs straight up run through the Dolphins' face and win by two touchdowns.”
5Carolina Panthers to beat Browns“I'm buying in on the Panthers being undervalued again... They can win this game by a field goal.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
New York Giants to beat Titans¹	Game Outcome Picks	Giants 12–7	100	100	0
Detroit Lions to beat Jets²	Game Outcome Picks	Lions 31–24	100	100	0
Seattle Seahawks to beat commanders³	Game Outcome Picks	Commanders 33–31	0	100	−189
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Dolphins⁴	Game Outcome Picks	Chiefs 24–10	100	0	+189
Carolina Panthers to beat Browns⁵	Game Outcome Picks	Browns 21–18	0	100	−189
5 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · all settled			60	80

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks New York Giants
New York Giants to beat Titans
What happenedGiants 12–7Titans at Giants
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Giants by 2.5 · favorite pick, Giants 54%.
How this was scored
won:
NYG
score:
7-12
skill:
0
they picked:
NYG
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NYG
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to beat Jets
What happenedLions 31–24Jets at Lions
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Lions by 7 · favorite pick, Lions about 3 in 4 (73%).
How this was scored
won:
DET
score:
24-31
skill:
0
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DET
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat commanders
What happenedCommanders 33–31Seahawks at Commanders
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Seahawks by 8.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks about 3 in 4 (77%).
How this was scored
won:
WAS
score:
31-33
skill:
−189
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
WAS
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
4Game Outcome Picks Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Dolphins
What happenedChiefs 24–10Chiefs at Dolphins
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.89difficulty+189skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Chiefs by 10 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 5 in 6 (82%).
How this was scored
won:
KC
score:
24-10
skill:
189
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
MIA
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
5Game Outcome Picks Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to beat Browns
What happenedBrowns 21–18Panthers at Browns
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Panthers by 2.5 · favorite pick, Panthers 55%.
How this was scored
won:
CLE
score:
18-21
skill:
−189
they picked:
CAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
CLE
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
60naive 80

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.
Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.
Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Gilberto Manzano · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Manzano picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Brooke Cersosimo · Game Outcome Picks · Buffalo Bills · Hit 100
Picks the Bills over the Vikings.
Gennaro Filice · Game Outcome Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Picks the Vikings to beat the Bills.
Moe Moton · Game Outcome Picks · Buffalo Bills · Hit 100
Picks the Bills to win.
Pamela Maldonado · Game Outcome Picks · Buffalo Bills · Hit 100
Picks the Bills to win.