Sam MonsonSep 24, 2026

Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Check the Mic (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 2 misses · 4 waiting

33.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3Games calledeveryone’s picks below

4Waitingnot graded yet

What Sam Monson said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

But because the Bills are wearing those great jerseys, I think they're gonna lose.

Sam Monson, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Check the Mic (podcast)
The episode: NFL Week 3 Preview & Picks: EVERY GAME!
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 24
PlayedSep 27
GradedSep 29

1Seattle Seahawks to beat Washington commanders“The Seahawks are gonna cover and destroy them.”
2Minnesota Vikings to beat Tampa Bay Bucks“I'm taking the rare non emotional hedge, and I'm actually just picking the Vikings to win and cover outright.”
3Los Angeles Chargers to beat Buffalo Bills“But because the Bills are wearing those great jerseys, I think they're gonna lose. Oh, so you're legitimately picking the charges here. Yes.”
4Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl“I picked Denver to win. ... Picking Denver because I picked them in the Super Bowl to win this game.”
5Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl“this was my Super Bowl matchup is this your Super Bowl matchup? Yeah. ... I picked Denver to win.”
6Miami Dolphins to pick at number 1“Malik Willis out here on a team that's 10 and a half point dogs at home in week three that's destined for the number one overall pick.”
7New Orleans Saints to win the division“they were one of the teams I picked that could go worse to first this year. Right? ... but I think the Saints are one of them.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Seattle Seahawks to beat Washington commanders¹	Game Outcome Picks	Commanders 33–31	0	100	−189
Minnesota Vikings to beat Tampa Bay Bucks²	Game Outcome Picks	Vikings 23–16	100	0	+189
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Buffalo Bills³	Game Outcome Picks	Bills 24–16	0	100	−189
Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl⁴	Super Bowl Picks	—	—	—	—
Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl⁵	Conference Champions	—	—	—	—
Miami Dolphins to pick at number 1⁶	Team Draft Slot Calls	—	—	—	—
New Orleans Saints to win the division⁷	Division Winners	—	—	—	—
7 calls · 1 hit · 2 misses · 4 waiting			33.3	66.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

7 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 conference champion, 1 division winner, 1 super bowl pick and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Where this call stands in the room

Miami Dolphins · 2026 season · overall pick

Sam Monson — 1 overall pickthe room — 3 calls from 3 punditsmedian 1 overall pick

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

1Game Outcome Picks Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat Washington commanders
What happenedCommanders 33–31Seahawks at Commanders
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Seahawks by 8.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks about 3 in 4 (77%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
How this was scored
won:
WAS
score:
31-33
skill:
−189
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
WAS
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings to beat Tampa Bay Bucks
What happenedVikings 23–16Vikings at Buccaneers
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.89difficulty+189skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Vikings by 1.5 · a toss-up, Vikings 50%, Buccaneers 50%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
How this was scored
won:
MIN
score:
23-16
skill:
189
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Buffalo Bills
What happenedBills 24–16Chargers at Bills
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7 · underdog pick, Chargers about 1 in 4 (27%).
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
16-24
skill:
−189
they picked:
LAC
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
4Super Bowl Picks Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
5Conference Champions Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
6Team Draft Slot Calls Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins to pick at number 1
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
7Division Winners New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to win the division
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
33.3naive 66.7

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.
Jason Harmon · Roster Spot Calls · Max Brosmer · Miss 0
Harmon expects the Vikings' quarterback room to stay intact while Kyler Murray is hurt, and predicts Max Brosmer will be released and re-signed to the practice squad since Minnesota won't carry four QBs.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Lazarczyk expects the Raiders to be sellers before the trade deadline, suggesting Kirk Cousins could be dealt back to the Vikings and that benched interior lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson is a prime candidate to be traded somewhere.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Pluym picked the Giants, Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Colts, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.