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Chris LongSep 25, 2026

Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. They also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Green Light with Chris Long (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 4calls landed2 hits · 2 misses · 2 waiting
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4Games calledeveryone’s picks below
2Waitingnot graded yet

What Chris Long said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I do like the Rams in this spot.
Chris Long, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Green Light with Chris Long (podcast)
The episode
Matthew Stafford Leads Rams vs Broncos & Ravens Battle Cowboys In Brazil | NFL WK3 Picks & Previews
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidSep 25
  2. PlayedSep 27
  3. GradedSep 29
  1. 1Cincinnati Bengals to beat Steelers“when, really, the the Bengals are gonna kick the door down in this matchup. If Joey Porter Junior's out... this is gonna be a rough one outside.”
  2. 2Los Angeles Rams to beat Broncos“I do like the Rams in this spot. They're riding a lot of emotion... I'll take the Rams. Sorry, cowboy. Sunday night. Even without Puka, he's not playing.”
  3. 3Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers“And I think the Bills are a fucking wagon right now. And the game's in Buffalo... So, they can't they can't lose this game. And I can't see them honestly winning it, but if they do, I'll sit here and be I'll be impressed.”
  4. 4Detroit Lions to beat Jets“I think Detroit's gonna come out so angry... I think Detroit's gonna show everybody that there's still a good football team... we're gonna kick the shit out of the Jets at home.”
  5. 5Detroit Lions to win the division“their window is certainly not as open as it was... but I still think they can win the North.”
  6. 6Minnesota Vikings to win the division“I've been bullish on the Vikings. Took them to finish second in North. I still think that that, fuck, they could win the North.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Steelers1Game Outcome PicksSteelers 30–270100−189
Los Angeles Rams to beat Broncos2Game Outcome PicksBroncos 30–260100−189
Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers3Game Outcome PicksBills 24–161001000
Detroit Lions to beat Jets4Game Outcome PicksLions 31–241001000
Detroit Lions to win the division5Division Winners————
Minnesota Vikings to win the division6Division Winners————
6 calls · 2 hits · 2 misses · 2 waiting50100

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks and 2 division winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksCincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati Bengals to beat Steelers

    What happenedSteelers 30–27Bengals at Steelers
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Bengals by 3.5 · favorite pick, Bengals 62%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    PIT
    score:
    27-30
    skill:
    −189
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams to beat Broncos

    What happenedBroncos 30–26Rams at Broncos
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Rams 50%, Broncos 50%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    26-30
    skill:
    −189
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers

    What happenedBills 24–16Chargers at Bills
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7 · favorite pick, Bills about 3 in 4 (73%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    16-24
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksDetroit Lions

    Detroit Lions to beat Jets

    What happenedLions 31–24Jets at Lions
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Lions by 7 · favorite pick, Lions about 3 in 4 (73%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    DET
    score:
    24-31
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DET
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Division WinnersDetroit Lions

    Detroit Lions to win the division

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Division WinnersMinnesota Vikings

    Minnesota Vikings to win the division

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    50naive 100

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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