Josh Holmes· Nov 8, 2022

Holmes called a string of Senate races for Republicans — Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Chuck Grassley in Iowa, Eric Schmitt in Missouri, Adam Laxalt in Nevada and Ted Budd in North Carolina — and said Ron DeSantis would be celebrating a win in Florida's governor's race.

“That is a race that has been a persistent two to three point lead for Adam here for about six weeks... Let's put that thing on the board.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Ruthless Podcast · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 6 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 6 have settled, averaging 83.3 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“that race is gonna be a little tighter than Grassley is typically accustomed to... He's gonna win, but that that's something to keep an eye on.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-ia
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Chuck Grassley
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chuck Grassley
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“that will help you understand why this guy is gonna win in Wisconsin”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“So Missouri, we're gonna be good. Eric Schmidt... He's gonna get over the finish line himself.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-mo
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Eric Schmitt
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri
decided in the:
general
they said:
Eric Schmitt
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I feel great about it. Yeah. I feel great about it. So let's put that thing on the board.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“He and he and his wonderful wife, Casey, are gonna be celebrating, no question tonight.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“a big tip of the cap there to Stephen Law... who put 30 plus million dollars in the North Carolina this cycle... And I'm I'm confident it's gonna come through.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nc
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ted Budd
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Budd
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.