Clay Travis· Nov 5, 2022

Travis said the Senate would be decided by four battleground states and that trend lines pointed to Republicans winning all four of them. He also predicted Brian Kemp would crush Stacey Abrams in the Georgia governor's race.

“I believe there are solid trend lines that Republicans are going to win all four of these states.”

said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 20 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 5, 2022
“Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are the acknowledged battleground states. I believe there are solid trend lines that Republicans are going to win all four of these states.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2022
“Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are the acknowledged battleground states. I believe there are solid trend lines that Republicans are going to win all four of these states.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2022
“Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are the acknowledged battleground states. I believe there are solid trend lines that Republicans are going to win all four of these states.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2022
“Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are the acknowledged battleground states. I believe there are solid trend lines that Republicans are going to win all four of these states.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-az
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mark Kelly
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Blake Masters
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2022
“I think it's definitely caught up with Stacy Abrams Buck because she's gonna get absolutely crushed, I believe by Brian Kemp in Georgia.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.