Clay Travis· Nov 8, 2022

Travis ran through the Republican Senate slate on Election Day, saying Vance, Masters, Oz, Budd and Bolduc would all win their races, and that Herschel Walker would win Georgia outright without a runoff.

“I think Blake Master is gonna win an Arizona.”

said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 6 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 6 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 83.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“Ted Bud's gonna win comfortably in North Carolina.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nc
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ted Budd
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Budd
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think Don Balduck's gonna win in New Hampshire.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald C. Bolduc
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“Doctor Oz, I think is gonna win today in Pennsylvania.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think he's going to win outright in Georgia tonight”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think Blake Master is gonna win an Arizona. He's your guy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-az
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mark Kelly
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Blake Masters
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I know you were with Jade Vance. He's gonna win probably a landslide based on the polls that I know you're seeing and I'm seeing.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
JD Vance
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.