JP Acosta#40 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 2, 2026

JP picked Carolina, Seattle, Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville, New England, Detroit, the Rams and Kansas City in Week 18, and said the Patriots will likely end up with the AFC's No. 2 seed.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast)Hear the original

7 of 10calls landed7 hits · 3 misses · 1 waiting

70Average accuracyout of 100, across 10 calls

70A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

10 of 11Settled1 still waiting

#40JP Acosta’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What JP Acosta said

I'm going with Seahawks, and it's just I have so so much trust in this defense.

JP Acosta, the lead quote

Where it was said: Pushing the Pile (podcast)
The episode: Preview & Picks For EVERY Week 18 NFL Game!
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 2
GradedAug 17

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Misses	Waiting
Game Outcome Picks	6	3	0
Seeding, Byes and Home Field	1	0	0
Player Season Numbers	0	0	1
All	7	3	1

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

11 checkable claims — 9 game outcome picks, 1 player season number and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

10 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 70 out of 100, against 70 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game Outcome Picks6 hits · 3 missesShow ▸

Denver Broncos to beat chargers
“I do think the Broncos win here. I just I don't think Trey Lance is gonna do much of anything”
Denver Broncos
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 4): Broncos by 14.5 · favorite pick, Broncos about 9 in 10 (90%).
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
3-19
skill:
0
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DEN
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat titans
“But I do think the Jaguars run away with this one.”
Jacksonville Jaguars
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 4): Jaguars by 12.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 6 in 7 (85%).
How this was scored
won:
JAX
score:
7-41
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
New England Patriots to beat Dolphins
“I think the Patriots are gonna win this one big.”
New England Patriots
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 4): Patriots by 14 · favorite pick, Patriots about 7 in 8 (87%).
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
10-38
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks to beat forty niners
“I'm going with Seahawks, and it's just I have so so much trust in this defense.”
Seattle Seahawks
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
Closing line (Jan 3): Seahawks by 2.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 57%.
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
13-3
skill:
106
they picked:
SEA
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
SF
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders
“I just don't think the Raiders are that are good enough to beat the Chiefs' backups, but we'll see.”
Kansas City Chiefs
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.06 difficulty = −106 skill
Closing line (Jan 4): Chiefs by 3.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 2 in 3 (66%).
How this was scored
won:
LV
score:
12-14
skill:
−106
they picked:
KC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
LV
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
Carolina Panthers to beat Buccaneers
“I am actually going with the Carolina Panthers in this one.”
Carolina Panthers
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.06 difficulty = −106 skill
Closing line (Jan 3): Buccaneers by 3 · underdog pick, Panthers 42%.
How this was scored
won:
TB
score:
14-16
skill:
−106
they picked:
CAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers
“I do think the ravens win mainly just because without DK Metcalfe, you don't even have the explosive threat”
Baltimore Ravens
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.06 difficulty = −106 skill
Closing line (Jan 4): Ravens by 4.5 · favorite pick, Ravens about 2 in 3 (66%).
How this was scored
won:
PIT
score:
24-26
skill:
−106
they picked:
BAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
PIT
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams to beat Cardinals
“But I just think there's too much Puka, too much Matthew Stafford, and I think that they're gonna go try and win the MVP back by putting it all in the Cardinals.”
Los Angeles Rams
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 4): Rams by 14.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 8 in 9 (89%).
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
20-37
skill:
0
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
LAR
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
Detroit Lions to beat Bears
“I do kinda think the Lions win. I think that they're again, with nothing to lose, nothing to play for, I think Jared Goff and the Lions' offense just lets it rip.”
Detroit Lions
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
Closing line (Jan 4): Bears by 3.5 · underdog pick, Lions 38%.
How this was scored
won:
DET
score:
19-16
skill:
106
they picked:
DET
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CHI
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?

Seeding, Byes and Home Field1 hitShow ▸

New England Patriots to take the top seed
“because they probably are gonna have the two seed, and they're probably going to draw the bills”
New England Patriots
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
How this was scored
skill:
106
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
checked as:
seeds 2–4 host a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
actual tier:
host
difficulty:
1.06
the naive guess:
where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
weeks in the season:
18
claimed seed:
2
claimed tier:
host
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?

Player Season Numbers1 waitingShow ▸

“placeholder”
Michael Wilson Arizona Cardinals
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.
Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.
Andrew Erickson · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Erickson floated Kansas City as the landing spot for Josh Downs and said a trade there would make them at least a WR3 rest of season; they also expect Rashee Rice to leave the Chiefs after this season as a free agent.
Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.