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JP Acosta· Jan 2, 2026

JP picked Carolina, Seattle, Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville, New England, Detroit, the Rams and Kansas City in Week 18, and said the Patriots will likely end up with the AFC's No. 2 seed.

“I'm going with Seahawks, and it's just I have so so much trust in this defense.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast) · read the original →

11 checkable claims — 9 game outcome picks, 1 player season number and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

10 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 70 out of 100, against 70 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

11 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Denver Broncos to beat chargers

    “I do think the Broncos win here. I just I don't think Trey Lance is gonna do much of anything”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    3-19
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jacksonville Jaguars to beat titans

    “But I do think the Jaguars run away with this one.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    JAX
    score:
    7-41
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • New England Patriots to beat Dolphins

    “I think the Patriots are gonna win this one big.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    10-38
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • New England Patriots to take the top seed

    “because they probably are gonna have the two seed, and they're probably going to draw the bills”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    106
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    checked as:
    seeds 2–4 host a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
    actual tier:
    host
    difficulty:
    1.06
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    2
    claimed tier:
    host
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Seattle Seahawks to beat forty niners

    “I'm going with Seahawks, and it's just I have so so much trust in this defense.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    13-3
    skill:
    106
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    SF
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders

    “I just don't think the Raiders are that are good enough to beat the Chiefs' backups, but we'll see.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-106 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LV
    score:
    12-14
    skill:
    -106
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Carolina Panthers to beat Buccaneers

    “I am actually going with the Carolina Panthers in this one.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-106 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    TB
    score:
    14-16
    skill:
    -106
    they picked:
    CAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    TB
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers

    “I do think the ravens win mainly just because without DK Metcalfe, you don't even have the explosive threat”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-106 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    PIT
    score:
    24-26
    skill:
    -106
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Los Angeles Rams to beat Cardinals

    “But I just think there's too much Puka, too much Matthew Stafford, and I think that they're gonna go try and win the MVP back by putting it all in the Cardinals.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    20-37
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    LAR
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Detroit Lions to beat Bears

    “I do kinda think the Lions win. I think that they're again, with nothing to lose, nothing to play for, I think Jared Goff and the Lions' offense just lets it rip.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DET
    score:
    19-16
    skill:
    106
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Michael Wilson to record ? receiving yards

    “placeholder”

    Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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