JP Acosta· Jan 2, 2026
JP picked Carolina, Seattle, Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville, New England, Detroit, the Rams and Kansas City in Week 18, and said the Patriots will likely end up with the AFC's No. 2 seed.
“I'm going with Seahawks, and it's just I have so so much trust in this defense.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast) · read the original →
11 checkable claims — 9 game outcome picks, 1 player season number and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
10 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 70 out of 100, against 70 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
11 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosJan 2, 2026
Denver Broncos to beat chargers
“I do think the Broncos win here. I just I don't think Trey Lance is gonna do much of anything”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 3-19
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsJan 2, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat titans
“But I do think the Jaguars run away with this one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 7-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 2, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Dolphins
“I think the Patriots are gonna win this one big.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 10-38
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
New England Patriots to take the top seed
“because they probably are gonna have the two seed, and they're probably going to draw the bills”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 106
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- seeds 2–4 host a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
- actual tier:
- host
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 2
- claimed tier:
- host
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 2, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to beat forty niners
“I'm going with Seahawks, and it's just I have so so much trust in this defense.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 13-3
- skill:
- 106
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsJan 2, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders
“I just don't think the Raiders are that are good enough to beat the Chiefs' backups, but we'll see.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 12-14
- skill:
- -106
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksCarolina PanthersJan 2, 2026
Carolina Panthers to beat Buccaneers
“I am actually going with the Carolina Panthers in this one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 14-16
- skill:
- -106
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensJan 2, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers
“I do think the ravens win mainly just because without DK Metcalfe, you don't even have the explosive threat”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 24-26
- skill:
- -106
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 2, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to beat Cardinals
“But I just think there's too much Puka, too much Matthew Stafford, and I think that they're gonna go try and win the MVP back by putting it all in the Cardinals.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-37
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsJan 2, 2026
Detroit Lions to beat Bears
“I do kinda think the Lions win. I think that they're again, with nothing to lose, nothing to play for, I think Jared Goff and the Lions' offense just lets it rip.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 19-16
- skill:
- 106
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Michael Wilson to record ? receiving yards
“placeholder”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.