Nathaniel Rakich· Oct 21, 2024

Rakich expects Trump to carry Nebraska with roughly 55-60 percent of the statewide vote, and argues that Republican incumbent Deb Fischer remains a heavy favorite over independent Dan Osborn, with his mental model of the Senate race being about a 55-45 Fischer win.

“I would personally say that Fischer is is still a a pretty heavy favorite in this race.”

said on air, transcribed by us · FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 race margins and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 89.1 out of 100, against 76.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 21, 2024
“I would personally say that Fischer is is still a a pretty heavy favorite in this race.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
a pretty heavy favorite
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Deb Fischer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Deb Fischer
days before the vote when called:
14
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsOct 21, 2024
“if it ends up being fifty five forty five for Fisher, which is kind of my mental model for this race”
Close · 67Scored 67.2a naive guess scored 32.8+35.09 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-senate-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
35.09
topic:
elections
what happened:
6.72
in their words:
fifty five forty five for Fisher
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Deb Fischer
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Deb Fischer
accuracy:
67.2
baseline:
32.8
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
10
days before the vote when called:
14
difficulty:
1.02
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
6.72
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsOct 21, 2024
“Donald Trump is going to win Nebraska with, you know, 55, 60% of the vote.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 97.9+2.14 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
2.14
topic:
elections
what happened:
59.32
in their words:
55, 60% of the vote
read as:
as written
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
share of the vote
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
97.9
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
14
difficulty:
1.02
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
20.46
their party:
Republican
their range:
55 to 60
the naive guess said:
59.53
Think this is wrong?

More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.