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A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
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Everyone writing under this banner, pooled into the numbers above. Counted by article, with a paginated series counting once — the same rule used for an individual, from the published methodology.
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are more likely than not — though a far way from certain — to win the Senate ... my forecasting model gives Democrats a roughly 8-in-10 chance of winning majorities in both chambers
Almost every quantitative indicator suggests Democrats are going to win the House ... my forecasting model gives Democrats a roughly 8-in-10 chance of winning majorities in both chambers
which would flip at least the House and probably (though not guaranteed) the Senate from Republican to Democratic control
we're in for a big blue wave, verging on a tsunami, which would flip at least the House and probably (though not guaranteed) the Senate from Republican to Democratic control
This is not the campaign map you'd see from a party about to hold the House. This is how you campaign when you're 10 points down and trying to stem the losses.
Run the same method on an 8-point Democratic average, and you get a Democratic majority of 225 to 232 seats... I think Olsen is probably understating democrats here.
The model uses our House popular-vote forecast, which is anchored on the generic ballot polls and stood at about D+9 in the latest run on Saturday night, October 3.
And I should say Democrats are also very likely to hold on to their seat in Georgia, just for what it's worth.
They look then likely as well to somewhere between a sort of toss-up and a lean Democratic seat in Texas and Ohio, where Democrats have got some good recruits in James Talarico and Sherrod Brown
They look then likely as well to somewhere between a sort of toss-up and a lean Democratic seat in Texas and Ohio, where Democrats have got some good recruits in James Talarico and Sherrod Brown, a former incumbent senator of Ohio.
They look likely, according to our model, to get a pickup in North Carolina, where the former governor, Roy Cooper, is running against the current chair of the Republican National Committee.
Our model at 50 Plus One shows a 99% chance that the Democrats will win 218 seats or more.
election forecasting models also pick up on Democratic upsets in the 20-to-30% zone (Florida, South Carolina, Kansas, Nebraska) that drag their median up to 52 seats
Democrats have a 73% chance at the Senate because of the long shots, not the toss-ups.
The House at 99% is in “spooky probability territory™,” but the seat-level math adds up . In Elliott’s forecast model at FiftyPlusOne, Democrats need only about a 3.5-point national margin to win the majority, and they're polling 5 to 6 points better than that.
According to our election forecast at FiftyPlusOne.news, the Democrats are almost a sure bet to win back control of the House
the Democrats ... are now favored (at a 7-in-10 chance) to flip the Senate
Our model at FiftyPlusOne has a median forecast of +25 seats for Democrats.
According to Elliott's election model, Democrats now have about a 70% chance of winning complete control of Congress this November.
According to Elliott's election model, Democrats now have about a 70% chance of winning complete control of Congress this November.
Pool all three, and the House goes from a coin flip, 218 seats and 51%, to 228 seats and 83%.
Our model at FiftyPlusOne has Democrats at a median of 238 House seats and a 98% chance of the majority.
Debiased expert ratings suggest Democrats are 83% to win the House
Our model at FiftyPlusOne has Democrats at a median of 238 House seats and a 98% chance of the majority.
and a 65% chance in the Senate, where polls have moved toward Democrats in most competitive states