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G. Elliott Morris#1 of 21 election pundits · Oct 18, 2026

Reading Trump's late rally schedule in deep-red states as a sign of Republican weakness, Morris argues the GOP is not on course to keep the House and expects a large Democratic wave in November.

Published in writing · Strength In Numbers (newsletter)Read the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#1G. Elliott Morris’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What G. Elliott Morris said

This is not the campaign map you'd see from a party about to hold the House.
G. Elliott Morris’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was published
Strength In Numbers (newsletter)
The piece
In closing weeks, Republicans go on defense
The original
Read the original
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Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 18
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “This is not the campaign map you'd see from a party about to hold the House. This is how you campaign when you're 10 points down and trying to stem the losses.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    102
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    15
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
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More control of congress

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