Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

G. Elliott Morris#1 of 21 election pundits · Nov 3, 2026

Morris's final forecast calls for Democrats to win the House and, less certainly, the Senate, with their model giving them roughly an 8-in-10 chance of majorities in both chambers.

Published in writing · Strength In Numbers (newsletter)Read the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
#1G. Elliott Morris’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What G. Elliott Morris said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Almost every quantitative indicator suggests Democrats are going to win the House and are more likely than not — though a far way from certain — to win the Senate.
G. Elliott Morris, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
Strength In Numbers (newsletter)
The piece
FINAL forecast: a blue wave, or a blue tsunami?
The original
Read the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidNov 3
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10
  1. 1Control of Congress“are more likely than not — though a far way from certain — to win the Senate ... my forecasting model gives Democrats a roughly 8-in-10 chance of winning majorities in both chambers”
  2. 2Control of Congress“Almost every quantitative indicator suggests Democrats are going to win the House ... my forecasting model gives Democrats a roughly 8-in-10 chance of winning majorities in both chambers”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“are more likely than not — though a far way from certain — to…”1Control of Congress—1000+100
“Almost every quantitative indicator suggests Democrats are…”2Control of Congress—1000+100
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled1000

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Control of Congress

    “are more likely than not — though a far way from certain — to win the Senate ... my forecasting model gives Democrats a roughly 8-in-10 chance of winning majorities in both chambers”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    100
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    more likely than not — though a far way from certain — to win the Senate
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-senate
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Control of Congress

    “Almost every quantitative indicator suggests Democrats are going to win the House ... my forecasting model gives Democrats a roughly 8-in-10 chance of winning majorities in both chambers”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    100
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    a roughly 8-in-10 chance of winning majorities in both chambers
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 0
Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.