House Popular Vote Margins
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 9
- Graded
- 4
- Average accuracy
- 76.8
- Pundits
- 6
44% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
4 / 9
graded
5 still pending
By season
- 20223 of 4 graded
- 20241 of 1 graded
- 20260 of 4 graded
Who is good at house popular vote margins
- Harrison Lavelle93 accuracy · 1 graded+50.3
- Lakshya Jain93 accuracy · 1 graded+50.3
- Ben Shapiro77 accuracy · 1 graded+35.4
- David Nir45 accuracy · 1 graded-54.9
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- Split Ticket92.8 · 2 graded
- The Ben Shapiro Show77.2 · 1 graded
- The Downballot (newsletter)44.5 · 1 graded
Every house popular vote margins take
1–9 of 9
- PendingG. Elliott MorrisHouse Popular Vote Margins2026 season
The model uses our House popular-vote forecast, which is anchored on the generic ballot polls and stood at about D+9 in the latest run on Saturday night, October 3.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Oct 4, 2026 But what this points to is a Democratic margin in the House popular vote of 13 points, which is considerably higher than what the current congressional ballot... is pointing to. That's around D+8.
And as a result, that leads to a prediction of Democrats winning the house popular vote by 13 points. In other words, we expect based on this, Democrats to do 16 points better than in 2022... so that would be a margin of 13 points.
- PendingDaniel DonnerHouse Popular Vote Margins2026 season
this year's primary turnout suggests that Democrats would win the House vote by an enormous 13-point spread.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 22, 2026 A final Democratic advantage in the House popular vote of around 3 to 5 points is both plausible and in line with both of these metrics.
So if we had to describe the national environment that best matches our ratings, we’d probably pick somewhere in the ballpark of R+2.
So if we had to describe the national environment that best matches our ratings, we’d probably pick somewhere in the ballpark of R+2.
We believe Republicans are on track to win the popular vote
That is with them assuming a generic ballot advantage for Republicans about three points. I don't think it's three points. I think it's gonna be five to seven points.
By topic
US Elections — house popular vote margins (4 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.