Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7: John Breech Picked Arizona Four Times. All Four Missed.
Seattle beat Arizona 31-7 in Week 2, and the pregame model had this one close on paper — the naive home-field math had Arizona favored by about half a point. It wasn't close. We've tracked 13 graded calls on this game, and the split tells you plenty about who was actually reading the matchup and who was just going through the motions.
The verdict: the field leaned right, 8-5
Eight of the 13 graded calls backed Seattle to win; five backed Arizona. Seattle won by 24, so the majority was right — but this wasn't unanimous, and the minority wasn't scattered. It was concentrated in one place.
The calls worth naming
Two Richard Sherman calls anchor the hit side, made from opposite ends of the calendar. On September 9 — before Week 1 had even kicked off — Sherman said Seattle would "steamroll the Cardinals," a called shot that graded as a full hit (100 accuracy, skill +200) once the score came in. A week later he went further and put a number on it, predicting "Seahawks winning... by at least seven... 24 to 13." That graded as the best score prediction of the bunch — 69% accuracy, skill +133.95 — because his predicted 11-point margin came closer to the real 24-point margin than anyone else who called the game.
Behind him, Pete Prisco had Seattle 19-13 (a 6-point margin, 57% accuracy) and Connor J. Benintendi had it 20-16 (a 4-point margin, 52% accuracy) — both correct on the winner, both too conservative on how lopsided it would get.
The flat winner picks deserve a mention too, because Arizona was the site's naive default here (the home team, in a game the model treated as roughly even). Backing Seattle wasn't free credit — it meant going against the expected pick. Michael Hanich, Colin Cowherd, Jeremy Brener and Brendon Nelson all did, and all four graded as full hits (accuracy 100, skill +194 to +200). Nelson's call is worth quoting for how far out it was made, on September 12: "This team is clearly good enough to beat the Cardinals and Commanders with Drew Lock" — a pick that assumed Seattle would win even with its backup quarterback in the lineup.
The misses: one name, four calls
The five wrong calls split 4-1, and the four all belong to John Breech. Across three separate columns he picked Arizona to win outright, then repeated it with the same 20-17 scoreline twice more, plus a separate flat winner pick built around Sam Darnold's injury status. Notably, Arizona was already the model's naive default pick in this matchup — so Breech wasn't taking a contrarian swing that didn't pay off, he was backing the safe, expected side and still getting it wrong. All four calls graded to zero.
Greg Jennings supplied the fifth miss, naming Arizona his "upset alert" and saying flatly, "I believe in this team... I don't think the Cardinals are gonna allow too much more." They allowed 31.
Track records: context for the names
Sherman's game-calling isn't a one-week story. Across everything we've graded from him, his Game Outcome Picks run 82% accurate on 30 graded calls — his best category by a wide margin over his 60% overall accuracy across 104 graded takes. This game fit the pattern rather than making it.
Breech's overall record sits at 47% accuracy on 68 graded calls, and Score Predictions are specifically his weak spot: 42% accuracy and a skill score of -7.11 across 39 graded calls, meaning his score picks as a group have graded worse than just guessing. Four straight misses on one game, from a pundit whose record in that exact category already runs behind the baseline, is the kind of pattern the record predicts rather than an outlier.
Nelson's hit is real but thin — one graded Game Outcome Pick in a three-take sample overall, so call it a good week, not yet a track record.
What else this touches
The result doesn't just settle one Sunday. Among our graded calls, Seattle's Playoff Picks have hit 92.9% of the time and its Division Winner picks 84.6% — both categories where backing the Seahawks has mostly paid off so far. Arizona's numbers run the other way: its lone graded Playoff Pick and all three graded Division Winner calls have missed outright. A 31-7 loss to a division rival doesn't make those numbers easier to bet against.
For the fuller picture, both teams have their own pages — Seahawks and Cardinals — and the leaderboard has the season-long standings for everyone named here.