David Nir· Sep 24, 2026
In surveying California's intraparty House matchups and other races, the piece characterizes Republicans as the favorites in Florida's Senate race against Democratic nominee Angie Nixon, while noting some polls show a tighter contest.
“Republicans, who were already favored in November, celebrated Nixon's win”
published in writing · The Downballot (newsletter) · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
Nothing to score yet: this grades once the result is in.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
1 checkable claim in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersSep 24, 2026
“Republicans, who were already favored in November, celebrated Nixon’s win , but some polls have shown her and other Florida Democrats with an unexpected opening.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.