Jake Ciely

Jake Ciely is a fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros and a guest on The Herd with Colin Cowherd. His work spans draft strategy, rookie evaluations, and positional rankings, with a particular focus on identifying value picks and sleepers across the NFL landscape.

Writes at FantasyPros

Every take from Jake Ciely, including the ones still waiting →

Is Jake Ciely accurate? Across 41 graded calls in 9 articles, Jake Ciely scores 66.27% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 9.56, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

66.27%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

9.56

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 9 articles. 100 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

97.52% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 41

1 of 9 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 2 of 2.

Jake has Christian McCaffrey as his RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at his RB13 cost, projecting him as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.6 graded calls · Jun 22, 2025
- Breece Hall to fall short of his draft cost (RB thirteen)
  “But at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two just because I think there's a lot of bust potential with this.”
  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
  How this was scored
  call:
  bust
  cost:
  RB thirteen
  naive:
  he repeats last season
  skill:
  -200
  player:
  Breece Hall
  season:
  2025
  correct:
  no
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  100
  position:
  RB
  had to beat:
  RB18
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  actual finish:
  RB18
  weeks left when called:
  18
  measured against:
  the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
  Think this grade is wrong?
- Ashton Jeanty to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
  “I think that he is more of a back end RB one for me than mid first round, where like a lot of people want to take him”
  Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 25+100 skill
  How this was scored
  skill:
  100
  player:
  Ashton Jeanty
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  12
  accuracy:
  75
  baseline:
  25
  position:
  RB
  ranked by:
  fantasy points
  difficulty:
  2
  the naive guess:
  no prior season — the startable tier at RB
  weeks in the season:
  18
  naive finish:
  24
  actual finish:
  15
  weeks left when called:
  18
  predicted finish:
  12
  Think this grade is wrong?
- Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (a light late round flier)
  “that's why bring up Brishard Smith as a light late round flier and a lot of these shows”
  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
  How this was scored
  call:
  sleeper
  cost:
  a light late round flier
  naive:
  a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
  skill:
  -200
  player:
  Brashard Smith
  season:
  2025
  correct:
  no
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  100
  position:
  RB
  had to beat:
  RB24
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  actual finish:
  RB70
  weeks left when called:
  18
  measured against:
  the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
  Think this grade is wrong?
- Justin Fields to record 8 rushing tds
  “Justin Fields is going to if he plays a full season, he's going to run for seven eight nine touchdowns”
  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 99.31-198.61 skill
  How this was scored
  naive:
  3.99
  skill:
  -198.61
  what happened:
  4
  player:
  Justin Fields
  season:
  2025
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  99.31
  predicted:
  8
  statistic:
  rushing_tds
  difficulty:
  2
  last season:
  5
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  18
  position average:
  2.97
  zero at percent out:
  50
  Think this grade is wrong?
- Christian McCaffrey to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points
  “I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.”
  Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 0+166.67 skill
  How this was scored
  skill:
  166.67
  player:
  Christian McCaffrey
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  12
  accuracy:
  83.33
  baseline:
  0
  position:
  RB
  ranked by:
  fantasy points
  difficulty:
  2
  the naive guess:
  where he finished last season
  weeks in the season:
  18
  naive finish:
  72
  actual finish:
  2
  weeks left when called:
  18
  predicted finish:
  4
  Think this grade is wrong?
- Breece Hall to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points
  “at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two”
  Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
  How this was scored
  skill:
  -100
  player:
  Breece Hall
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  12
  accuracy:
  50
  baseline:
  100
  position:
  RB
  ranked by:
  fantasy points
  difficulty:
  2
  the naive guess:
  where he finished last season
  weeks in the season:
  18
  naive finish:
  18
  actual finish:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  18
  predicted finish:
  24
  Think this grade is wrong?

Jake Ciely

Graded calls · 41

1 of 9 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 2 of 2.

Jake has Christian McCaffrey as his RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at his RB13 cost, projecting him as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.6 graded calls · Jun 22, 2025

Breece Hall to fall short of his draft cost (RB thirteen)
“But at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two just because I think there's a lot of bust potential with this.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
bust
cost:
RB thirteen
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB18
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB18
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this grade is wrong?
Ashton Jeanty to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“I think that he is more of a back end RB one for me than mid first round, where like a lot of people want to take him”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 25+100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
75
baseline:
25
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
no prior season — the startable tier at RB
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
24
actual finish:
15
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this grade is wrong?
Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (a light late round flier)
“that's why bring up Brishard Smith as a light late round flier and a lot of these shows”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
a light late round flier
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
-200
player:
Brashard Smith
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB70
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this grade is wrong?
Justin Fields to record 8 rushing tds
“Justin Fields is going to if he plays a full season, he's going to run for seven eight nine touchdowns”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 99.31-198.61 skill
How this was scored
naive:
3.99
skill:
-198.61
what happened:
4
player:
Justin Fields
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
99.31
predicted:
8
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
5
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this grade is wrong?
Christian McCaffrey to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 0+166.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
166.67
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
0
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
72
actual finish:
2
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
4
Think this grade is wrong?
Breece Hall to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points
“at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-100
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
50
baseline:
100
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
18
actual finish:
18
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
24
Think this grade is wrong?