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Jake Ciely· Jun 22, 2025

Jake has Christian McCaffrey as his RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at his RB13 cost, projecting him as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.

“I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

6 checkable claims — 3 positional finishes, 1 fantasy bust call, 1 player season number and 1 sleeper call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 34.7 out of 100, against 70.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Fantasy Bust CallsBreece HallNew York JetsJun 22, 2025

    Breece Hall to fall short of his draft cost (RB thirteen)

    “But at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two just because I think there's a lot of bust potential with this.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
    How this was scored
    call:
    bust
    cost:
    RB thirteen
    naive:
    he repeats last season
    skill:
    -200
    player:
    Breece Hall
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    RB
    had to beat:
    RB18
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    RB18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish

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  • Sleeper CallsBrashard SmithKansas City ChiefsJun 22, 2025

    Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (a light late round flier)

    “that's why bring up Brishard Smith as a light late round flier and a lot of these shows”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    a light late round flier
    naive:
    a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
    skill:
    -200
    player:
    Brashard Smith
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    RB
    had to beat:
    RB24
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    RB70
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier

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  • Positional FinishesBreece HallNew York JetsJun 22, 2025

    Breece Hall to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points

    “at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    -100
    player:
    Breece Hall
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    12
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    RB
    ranked by:
    fantasy points
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    18
    actual finish:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    24

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  • Positional FinishesAshton JeantyLas Vegas RaidersJun 22, 2025

    Ashton Jeanty to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points

    “I think that he is more of a back end RB one for me than mid first round, where like a lot of people want to take him”

    Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 25+100 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    100
    player:
    Ashton Jeanty
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    12
    accuracy:
    75
    baseline:
    25
    position:
    RB
    ranked by:
    fantasy points
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — the startable tier at RB
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    24
    actual finish:
    15
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    12

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  • Positional FinishesChristian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ersJun 22, 2025

    Christian McCaffrey to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points

    “I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.”

    Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 0+166.67 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    166.67
    player:
    Christian McCaffrey
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    12
    accuracy:
    83.33
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    RB
    ranked by:
    fantasy points
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    72
    actual finish:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    4

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  • Player Season NumbersJustin FieldsNew York JetsJun 22, 2025

    Justin Fields to record 8 rushing tds

    “Justin Fields is going to if he plays a full season, he's going to run for seven eight nine touchdowns”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 99.31-198.61 skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    3.99
    skill:
    -198.61
    what happened:
    4
    player:
    Justin Fields
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    99.31
    predicted:
    8
    statistic:
    rushing_tds
    difficulty:
    2
    last season:
    5
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    position average:
    2.97
    zero at percent out:
    50

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What others said about the same people

More positional finishes

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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