Jake Ciely#20 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 22, 2025

Jake has Christian McCaffrey as their RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at their RB13 cost, projecting them as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.

Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 6calls landed1 hit · 2 close calls · 3 misses · all settled

34.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls

70.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

6 of 6Settlednone still waiting

#20Jake Ciely’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jake Ciely said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.

Jake Ciely, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
The episode: FantasyPros - Is Christian McCaffrey Worth The Risk? | BOOM Or BUST Running Backs: Draft Or Fade? (Ep. 1595)
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJun 22, 2025
GradedAug 5–19, 2026

1Breece Hall to fall short of his draft cost (RB thirteen)“But at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two just because I think there's a lot of bust potential with this.”
2Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (a light late round flier)“that's why bring up Brishard Smith as a light late round flier and a lot of these shows”
3Breece Hall to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points“at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two”
4Ashton Jeanty to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points“I think that he is more of a back end RB one for me than mid first round, where like a lot of people want to take him”
5Christian McCaffrey to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points“I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.”
6Justin Fields to record 8 rushing tds“Justin Fields is going to if he plays a full season, he's going to run for seven eight nine touchdowns”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Breece Hall to fall short of his draft cost (RB thirteen)¹	Fantasy Bust Calls	—	0	100	−200
Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (a light late round flier)²	Sleeper Calls	—	0	100	−200
Breece Hall to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points³	Positional Finishes	Finished #18	50	100	−100
Ashton Jeanty to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points⁴	Positional Finishes	Finished #15	75	25	+100
Christian McCaffrey to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points⁵	Positional Finishes	Finished #2	83.33	0	+166.67
Justin Fields to record 8 rushing tds⁶	Player Season Numbers	4	0	99.31	−198.61
6 calls · 1 hit · 2 close calls · 3 misses · all settled			34.7	70.7

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 3 positional finishes, 1 fantasy bust call, 1 player season number and 1 sleeper call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 34.7 out of 100, against 70.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Fantasy Bust Calls Breece Hall New York Jets
Breece Hall to fall short of his draft cost (RB thirteen)
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
How this was scored
call:
bust
cost:
RB thirteen
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
−200
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB18
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB18
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
2Sleeper Calls Brashard Smith Kansas City Chiefs
Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (a light late round flier)
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
a light late round flier
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
−200
player:
Brashard Smith
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB70
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
3Positional Finishes Breece Hall New York Jets
Breece Hall to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #18called #24 · by fantasy points
50Close · naive 100
50this call100a naive guess−50worse than naive2difficulty−100skill
How this was scored
skill:
−100
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
50
baseline:
100
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
18
actual finish:
18
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
24
Think this is wrong?
4Positional Finishes Ashton Jeanty Las Vegas Raiders
Ashton Jeanty to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #15called #12 · by fantasy points
75Close · naive 25
75this call25a naive guess50better than naive2difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
75
baseline:
25
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
no prior season — the startable tier at RB
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
24
actual finish:
15
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this is wrong?
5Positional Finishes Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #2called #4 · by fantasy points
83.33Hit · naive 0
83.33this call0a naive guess83.33better than naive2difficulty+166.67skill
How this was scored
skill:
166.67
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
0
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
72
actual finish:
2
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
4
Think this is wrong?
6Player Season Numbers Justin Fields New York Jets
Justin Fields to record 8 rushing tds
What happened4called 8
0Miss · naive 99.31
0this call99.31a naive guess−99.31worse than naive2difficulty−198.61skill
How this was scored
naive:
3.99
skill:
−198.61
what happened:
4
player:
Justin Fields
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
99.31
they said:
8
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
5
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
34.7naive 70.7

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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Parker Hurley · Roster Spot Calls · Khalid Kareem · Miss 0
Hurley predicts the 49ers will release Khalil Kareem when Nate Hobbs is activated and cut Brandin Cooks when C.J. West returns, while arguing Sebastian Valdez won't be the one let go and no cornerback will be cut.
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More positional finishes

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Nick Wright · Positional Finishes · Puka Nacua · Close 75
Nick Wright picked the Ravens to beat Houston this weekend even with Lamar Jackson possibly out (leaning on Derrick Henry and Cooper Rush), the Chiefs to win in Jacksonville, and the Rams to beat the 49ers on Thursday night. They also laid out an AFC playoff field of Bills, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts, projected the Chiefs' receiver pecking order once Rashee Rice returns, and called Justin Jefferson the best receiver in football with Puka Nacua a top-five receiver.
Rich Hribar · Positional Finishes · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Hribar published their 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how they prioritize drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.
Chris Brockman · Positional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Hit 100
Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called their shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.
Pat Gustavson · Positional Finishes · Bijan Robinson · Close 75
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out their own coaching landing spots.
JP Acosta · Positional Finishes · Bijan Robinson · Close 75
JP picked the Eagles to beat the 49ers in a low-scoring game and the Jaguars to beat the Bills, called Bijan Robinson the best running back in the league, and named their own first-team All-Pro roster.
Rich Eisen · Positional Finishes · George Pickens · Hit 100
Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said they don't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season.