Jake Ciely#20 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 23, 2025
Counting down their top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Jake Ciely said
We might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one and he's outside the top twenty.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - Top 10 Breakout Candidates | Middle & Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Ep. 1664)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidAug 23, 2025
- GradedAug 5–19, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleeper Calls | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Positional Finishes | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player Season Numbers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| All | 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
How each call scored
14 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 4 depth chart calls, 2 player season numbers and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 18 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 14 have settled, averaging 62.7 out of 100, against 58.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Sleeper Calls3 hits · 3 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Braelon Allen to outplay his draft cost (those mid rounds)
“So I think there's a lot of appeal for Braylon Allen those mid rounds.”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- those mid rounds
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Braelon Allen
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB51
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB94
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Romeo Doubs to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty four)
“This feels like the most lay up of mine. I'm gonna go with Roman Duns... how are you not excited for the number two, who, by the way, has a world where he might be the most valuable Bears wide receiver”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty four
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Romeo Doubs
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR57
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR34
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Marvin Mims Jr. to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver fifty eight in ECR)
“It's Marvin Mims... now we're talking about Marvin Mims clearly is the number two and potentially having one hundred plus targets”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver fifty eight in ECR
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Marvin Mims Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR52
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR70
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver forty two in ADP)
“he took Ricky pearsoll just I mean, I just knew it... to be fair, like I actually had him as my number one... I cannot agree more on Ricky Piersel.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver forty two in ADP
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Ricky Pearsall
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR81
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR78
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Cedric Tillman to outplay his draft cost (going super late in draft)
“I'm gonna go to Cedric Tillman... for somebody that's going super late in draft, that can be the number two”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- going super late in draft
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Cedric Tillman
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR90
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR98
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Bryce Young to outplay his draft cost (he's outside the top twenty)
“My number five. I'll go to quarterback first. I'm gonna go to Bryce Young... we might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one and he's outside the top twenty”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- he's outside the top twenty
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Bryce Young
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB20
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB19
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Positional Finishes1 close call · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Tucker Kraft to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
“Do you think Craft can rise above that and have this kind of like top five ish tight end season. Speaker 3: I do”
Finished #17called #5 · by fantasy points0Miss0 − 16.67 naive = −16.67 × 2 difficulty = −33.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −33.33
- player:
- Tucker Kraft
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 16.67
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 7
- actual finish:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 5
Bryce Young to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“we might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one”
Finished #19called #12 · by fantasy points41.67Close41.67 − 91.67 naive = −50 × 2 difficulty = −100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −100
- player:
- Bryce Young
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 41.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 20
- actual finish:
- 19
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 12
Player Season Numbers2 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Caleb Williams to record 30 passing tds
“Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.”
27called 3080Hit80 − 24.61 naive = 55.39 × 2 difficulty = +110.78 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 16.82
- skill:
- 110.78
- what happened:
- 27
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 24.61
- they said:
- 30
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 20
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Caleb Williams to record 4,000 passing yards
“Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.”
3,942called 4,00097.1Hit97.1 − 31.73 naive = 65.37 × 2 difficulty = +130.74 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 2596.37
- skill:
- 130.74
- what happened:
- 3942
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 97.1
- baseline:
- 31.73
- they said:
- 4000
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 3541
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1651.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Depth Chart Calls3 hits · 1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
Cedric Tillman to be 2nd on the depth chart
“even if he's just averaging six seven targets per game, for somebody that's going super late in draft, that can be the number two”
No. 2called No. 2 · by receptions100Hit100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Cedric Tillman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Marvin Mims Jr. to be 2nd on the depth chart
“he's clearly been the number two. He's been run out there as the number two... the two that we know right now is actually Marvin Mims”
No. 3called No. 2 · by receptions91.67Hit91.67 − 100 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- DEN
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Marvin Mims Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Chris Rodriguez Jr. to be 3rd on the depth chart
“Rodriguez is a good talent. I would put him third on this depth chart.”
No. 2called No. 3 · by rushing yards91.67Hit91.67 − 83.33 naive = 8.34 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- WAS
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 4
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Matthew Golden to be 1st on the depth chart
“we have one clear option, Matthew Golden is clearly going to be the one”
No. 4called No. 1 · by receptions75Close75 − 83.33 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- GB
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Matthew Golden
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Who this take is about
Braelon Allen, New York Jets, Romeo Doubs, Chicago Bears, Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos, Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers, Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns, Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers, Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers, Caleb Williams, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Washington Commanders, Matthew Golden
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · Travis Hunter · Hit 100
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Sleeper Calls · Tyler Warren · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Pat Fitzmaurice · Sleeper Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.Joe Pisapia · Sleeper Calls · Tyreek Hill · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · George Pickens · Hit 100
Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; they forecast Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns.