Jake Ciely#20 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 13, 2025
Seeley has dropped Kenneth Walker to RB18 rest-of-season, keeps Breece Hall around RB20 and argues Travis Etienne belongs back in RB2 territory or better, views Egbuka as only a back-end WR2 to sell high on, and thinks Philadelphia matches up too well with Kansas City.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Jake Ciely said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI moved them all the way down to RB eighteen.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - Week 2 Lineup Advice: Starts, Sleepers, Sits, Player Debates, and TD Calls (Ep. 1703)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidSep 13, 2025
- GradedAug 5, 2026
- 1Breece Hall to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points“So I had whole twenty two preseason, I'd probably move him up two spots... so that would pretty much be like right around twenty”
- 2Kenneth Walker III to finish top 18 at his position, by fantasy points“On Kenneth Walker being the bell cow... I moved them all the way down to RB eighteen.”
- 3Philadelphia Eagles to beat Chiefs“I just don't know that the Eagles just don't gob smack them again. I just think the Eagles match up too well with the Chiefs... position by a position. I'm just gonna take the Eagles”
- 4Positional Finishes“I think you can argue ETN should jump into it at least back in RB two value, if not even a little bit higher.”
- 5Positional Finishes“if you can get wide receiver one value, I wouldn't put him in the wide receiver one conversation... So like still back end wide receiver two for me?”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points1 | Positional Finishes | Finished #18 | 83.33 | 100 | −32.33 | |
| Kenneth Walker III to finish top 18 at his position, by fantasy points2 | Positional Finishes | Finished #21 | 75 | 33.33 | +80.83 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles to beat Chiefs3 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 0 | +194 | |
| “I think you can argue ETN should jump into it at least back in…”4 | Positional Finishes | — | — | — | — | |
| “if you can get wide receiver one value, I wouldn't put him in…”5 | Positional Finishes | — | — | — | — | |
| 5 calls · 2 hits · 1 close call · 2 too vague to check | 86.1 | 44.4 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 claims — 4 positional finishes and 1 game outcome pick — the 3 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 calls we can check have settled, averaging 86.1 out of 100, against 44.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The other 2 were too vague to check, so they are not graded.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
1Positional FinishesBreece HallNew York Jets
Breece Hall to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #18called #20 · by fantasy points83.33Hit · naive 10083.33this call−100a naive guess=−16.67worse than naive×1.94difficulty=−32.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −32.33
- player:
- Breece Hall
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 18
- actual finish:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- predicted finish:
- 20
2Positional FinishesKenneth Walker IIISeattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker III to finish top 18 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #21called #18 · by fantasy points75Close · naive 33.3375this call−33.33a naive guess=41.67better than naive×1.94difficulty=+80.83skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 80.83
- player:
- Kenneth Walker III
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 33.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 29
- actual finish:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- predicted finish:
- 18
3Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Chiefs
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.94difficulty=+194skillClosing line (Sep 14): Eagles by 1.5 · a toss-up, Eagles 53%, Chiefs 47%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
4Positional FinishesTravis EtienneJacksonville Jaguars
“I think you can argue ETN should jump into it at least back in RB two value, if not even a little bit higher.”
VerdictToo vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
5Positional FinishesTetairoa McMillanTampa Bay Buccaneers
“if you can get wide receiver one value, I wouldn't put him in the wide receiver one conversation... So like still back end wide receiver two for me?”
VerdictToo vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
86.1naive 44.4
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
Carney predicts Geno Smith signs with the Vikings and starts for them, that at least four of the fringe veteran quarterbacks (Tua, Kyler, Cousins, Fields, Geno) will be starters next season, and that Mike Evans stays with Tampa Bay. They also rank their top fantasy wide receivers and comments on running back landing spots and trade values.Dalton Feely · Trade and Signing Calls · Chris Godwin Jr. · Hit 100
Feenie predicted Chris Godwin stays in Tampa Bay, Josh Sweat reunites with Jonathan Gannon in Arizona, Ronnie Stanley signs with New England, Jevon Holland lands in Indianapolis, Khalil Mack joins Washington, Asante Samuel Jr. goes to San Francisco, Najee Harris to the Raiders and Bobby Wagner to Dallas.Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Aaron Rodgers · Miss 0
Eisen ranked their top five most impressive Pro Bowl campaigns of the season, topped by Sam Darnold, and predicted that Sunday would be Aaron Rodgers' last game with the Jets.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.Tyler Sullivan · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Positional Finishes · Puka Nacua · Close 75
Nick Wright picked the Ravens to beat Houston this weekend even with Lamar Jackson possibly out (leaning on Derrick Henry and Cooper Rush), the Chiefs to win in Jacksonville, and the Rams to beat the 49ers on Thursday night. They also laid out an AFC playoff field of Bills, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts, projected the Chiefs' receiver pecking order once Rashee Rice returns, and called Justin Jefferson the best receiver in football with Puka Nacua a top-five receiver.Rich Hribar · Positional Finishes · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Hribar published their 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how they prioritize drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.Chris Brockman · Positional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Hit 100
Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called their shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.Ryan Tracy · Positional Finishes · Bryan Cook · Miss 0
Tracy argues the Chiefs should address edge rusher and defensive tackle via the draft and use free agency on running back and wide receiver; they name Brian Robinson as their target, expects Kenneth Walker III to re-sign with Seattle, thinks Nick Bolton-style veterans like Jerry Tillery, Derek Nnadi and Mike Pennel shouldn't return, believes Bryan Cook is a top-10 safety the Chiefs can't afford, and predicts a quarterback (Trinidad Chambliss) will rocket up boards so more than one QB goes in the top 10.Pat Gustavson · Positional Finishes · Bijan Robinson · Close 75
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out their own coaching landing spots.