Ollie Connolly

Not ranked yetBuilding a record: 5 graded articles

15.21MissedTakes Scorevs a naive guess · 0 = no better

51.38%Accuracyhow often the calls landed

16Graded callsacross 5 articles

19Waitingnot graded yet

Is Ollie Connolly accurate?

Across 16 graded calls in 5 articles, Ollie Connolly scores 51.38% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 15.21, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.

That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

How accurate are NFL experts overall? →

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.

All 35 calls · one square per call

7hits44% of graded

3Close19%

6misses38%

Where Ollie Connolly stands

All 87 ranked NFL pundits · dot size = graded calls · hover a dot for the name

MissedTakes Score

How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.

By kind

accuracy · graded calls

Mock Draft Picks68.12%

11 graded

Also called, too few graded to rateGame Outcome Picks (1) · Position Order Calls (1) · Positional Finishes (1) · Coach Award Picks (1) · Head Coach Rankings (1)

A kind is rated once it has five graded calls.

How the calls are made

77.27%specific enough to check

36.82%hedged: a “probably”, a “could”

Hedged vs plain callsOnly 6 hedged calls are graded so far, too few to compare. The comparison appears once there are enough. Compare →

Every graded call, article by article

HitCloseMissWaiting

16 graded calls in 5 articles, newest first — page 1 of 2. Every take from Ollie Connolly, including the ones still waiting →

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Apr 17, 2026
Connelly assesses the 2026 draft class: they see Jeremiah Love as a top-ten most productive player at running back with an Ezekiel Elliott-to-Bijan/McCaffrey range, projects Fernando Mendoza as a top-8-to-12 starting QB in the league, pegs Ty Simpson as a top-of-the-second-round pick they'd only be comfortable taking in the third, and slots various tight ends and late running backs into specific rounds.Mock Draft Picks · 9 calls
2 close calls · 2 misses · 5 waiting · 0 of 4 graded calls landed

Show the 4 graded calls

Kaelon Black to be picked “potential sixth round pick types” (picks 182–216)
“he'll probably be on the field more than other potential sixth round pick types”
Miss · 2Scored 1.86a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Kaelon Black
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
1.86
baseline:
50
actual pick:
90
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
1.86
predicted pick:
potential sixth round pick types (picks 182–216)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Ty Simpson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)
“Well, you're probably going to have to do it the top of the second round.”
Close · 42Scored 42.04a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
42.04
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
42.04
predicted pick:
top of the second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Demond Claiborne to be picked “fourth or fifth round” (picks 101–181)
“Maybe he's probably gonna go in the fourth or fifth round.”
Close · 48Scored 47.88a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Demond Claiborne
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
47.88
baseline:
50
actual pick:
198
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
47.88
predicted pick:
fourth or fifth round (picks 101–181)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Kyle Louis to be picked “second or third round pick” (picks 33–100)
“Kyle Lewis, who's going to be a second or third round pick as a linebacker or safety”
Miss · 19Scored 19.28a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Kyle Louis
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
19.28
baseline:
50
actual pick:
138
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
19.28
predicted pick:
second or third round pick (picks 33–100)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?

Apr 15, 2026

Connolly says Ruben Bain will go between the seventh and twelfth picks with 12 as their floor, floats David Bailey as a possible No. 2 overall pick, values Messidor in the twenties, expects Jermad McCoy to be the first cornerback drafted, and believes Malachi Lawrence will end up the most impactful edge player of the class and a first-round pick.Mock Draft Picks, Position Order Calls · 5 calls

2 hits · 1 miss · 2 waiting · 2 of 3 graded calls landed

Show the 3 graded calls

Malachi Lawrence to be picked “the first round” (picks 1–32)
“I think fifteen is where it starts... they would struggle to sleep that night if they didn't come away from the first round with Malachi Lawrence.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Malachi Lawrence
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
23
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
the first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“they just designed their offensive game plan around David Bailey, who might be the second pick in the draft”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
David Bailey
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Jermod McCoy to be 1st cornerback off the board
“I would be pretty stunned if he was not the first one of these corners taken.”
Miss · 2Scored 2.21a naive guess scored 21.34-19.13 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 27 at random averages 21.34
skill:
−19.13
player:
Jermod McCoy
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
2.21
baseline:
21.34
position:
cornerback
class size:
27
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
12
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this grade is wrong?

Apr 2, 2026

Connelly expects Texas linebacker Anthony Hill to be drafted in the second round despite their reservations, sees Caden McDonald sneaking into the back of the first round and Lee Hunter going in the second, and warns that Caleb Banks — because of the recurring foot injury and disappearing stretches — will break the heart of whoever drafts them.Mock Draft Picks · 4 calls

3 hits · 1 waiting · 3 of 3 graded calls landed