Ollie Connolly· Apr 17, 2026
Connelly assesses the 2026 draft class: he sees Jeremiah Love as a top-ten most productive player at running back with an Ezekiel Elliott-to-Bijan/McCaffrey range, projects Fernando Mendoza as a top-8-to-12 starting QB in the league, pegs Ty Simpson as a top-of-the-second-round pick he'd only be comfortable taking in the third, and slots various tight ends and late running backs into specific rounds.
“I think you're getting someone where the benchmark is going to be top ten most productive play at his position.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
9 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks, 2 positional finishes and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 27.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
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Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksKyle LouisApr 17, 2026
Kyle Louis to be picked “second or third round pick” (picks 33–100)
“Kyle Lewis, who's going to be a second or third round pick as a linebacker or safety”
Miss · 19Scored 19.28a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kyle Louis
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 19.28
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 138
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 19.28
- predicted pick:
- second or third round pick (picks 33–100)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksKaelon BlackApr 17, 2026
Kaelon Black to be picked “potential sixth round pick types” (picks 182–216)
“he'll probably be on the field more than other potential sixth round pick types”
Miss · 2Scored 1.86a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kaelon Black
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 1.86
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 90
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 1.86
- predicted pick:
- potential sixth round pick types (picks 182–216)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksDemond ClaiborneApr 17, 2026
Demond Claiborne to be picked “fourth or fifth round” (picks 101–181)
“Maybe he's probably gonna go in the fourth or fifth round.”
Close · 48Scored 47.88a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Demond Claiborne
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 47.88
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 198
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 47.88
- predicted pick:
- fourth or fifth round (picks 101–181)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonApr 17, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)
“Well, you're probably going to have to do it the top of the second round.”
Close · 42Scored 42.04a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 42.04
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 42.04
- predicted pick:
- top of the second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Fernando Mendoza to finish top 12 at his position, by passing yards
“to push on him be maybe a top twelve to top eight starts in the league”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
- Position Order CallsSonny StylesApr 17, 2026
Sonny Styles to be the second or third best player of role in the class at his position off the board
“I love Sunny Styles. I think he's maybe the second or third best player of role in the class.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
- Positional FinishesJeremiyah LoveApr 17, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to finish top 10 at his position, by rushing yards
“And I think you're getting someone where the benchmark is going to be top ten most productive play at his position.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
- Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqApr 17, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties”
“no it feels like the range has come down slightly from Post COMBINE i would say that maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksWill KacmarekApr 17, 2026
Will Kacmarek to be picked “an early day three”
“but if you think he's one of the top two blocking tight, ends that feels like an early day. Three”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- David HarrisonRoster Spot Calls · Sonny StylesHit · 100Harrison gives his initial 53-man roster projection for the Washington Commanders: three quarterbacks including Ethan Kalyak Manus, three running backs, four tight ends, six receivers (leaving off De'Ami Brown and Jaden Bradley), nine offensive linemen with Matt Goldman at center, and a defense of six linebackers but only four cornerbacks. He also projects Tunstall and Newton going to IR on Monday with De'Ami Brown and Dietrich Wise re-signed, plus a corner-heavy practice squad.
- David HarrisonRoster Spot Calls · Sonny StylesHit · 100Harrison projects the Washington Commanders' initial 53-man roster if it had to be set today, naming 26 offensive players, three specialists and 24 defenders, and also assigns depth-chart slots at quarterback, running back, the offensive line, the interior defensive line, and the return/specialist jobs.
- Alain PoupartRoster Spot Calls · Will KacmarekHit · 100Previewing the Dolphins' preseason finale and roster cutdown, Poupart states Malik Willis is locked in as the starting quarterback, Mark Gronowski is effectively gone, and identifies Greg Dulcich and Will Kacmarek as the only certainties at tight end while treating several receivers as settled roster locks.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.