Ollie ConnollyApr 17, 2026

Connelly assesses the 2026 draft class: they see Jeremiah Love as a top-ten most productive player at running back with an Ezekiel Elliott-to-Bijan/McCaffrey range, projects Fernando Mendoza as a top-8-to-12 starting QB in the league, pegs Ty Simpson as a top-of-the-second-round pick they'd only be comfortable taking in the third, and slots various tight ends and late running backs into specific rounds.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 4calls landed2 close calls · 2 misses · 5 waiting

27.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

4 of 9Settled5 still waiting

5Waitingnot graded yet

What Ollie Connolly said

I think you're getting someone where the benchmark is going to be top ten most productive play at his position.

Ollie Connolly, the lead quote

Where it was said: Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode: Ranking the 2026 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks, Running Backs and Tight Ends
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidApr 17
GradedAug 5–18

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Close	Misses	Waiting
Mock Draft Picks	2	2	2
Positional Finishes	0	0	2
Position Order Calls	0	0	1
All	2	2	5

How each call scored

9 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks, 2 positional finishes and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 27.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick

second or third round pick (picks 33–100)They said

138What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Mock Draft Picks2 close calls · 2 misses · 2 waitingShow ▸

Kyle Louis to be picked “second or third round pick” (picks 33–100)
“Kyle Lewis, who's going to be a second or third round pick as a linebacker or safety”
Kyle Louis
Went 138
19.28Miss
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Kyle Louis
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
19.28
baseline:
50
actual pick:
138
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
19.28
predicted pick:
second or third round pick (picks 33–100)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Kaelon Black to be picked “potential sixth round pick types” (picks 182–216)
“he'll probably be on the field more than other potential sixth round pick types”
Kaelon Black
Went 90
1.86Miss
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Kaelon Black
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
1.86
baseline:
50
actual pick:
90
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
1.86
predicted pick:
potential sixth round pick types (picks 182–216)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Demond Claiborne to be picked “fourth or fifth round” (picks 101–181)
“Maybe he's probably gonna go in the fourth or fifth round.”
Demond Claiborne
Went 198
47.88Close
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Demond Claiborne
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
47.88
baseline:
50
actual pick:
198
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
47.88
predicted pick:
fourth or fifth round (picks 101–181)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Ty Simpson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)
“Well, you're probably going to have to do it the top of the second round.”
Ty Simpson
Went 13
42.04Close
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
42.04
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
42.04
predicted pick:
top of the second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Will Kacmarek to be picked “an early day three”
“but if you think he's one of the top two blocking tight, ends that feels like an early day. Three”
Will Kacmarek
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties”
“no it feels like the range has come down slightly from Post COMBINE i would say that maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties”
Kenyon Sadiq
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Positional Finishes2 waitingShow ▸

Fernando Mendoza to finish top 12 at his position, by passing yards
“to push on him be maybe a top twelve to top eight starts in the league”
Fernando Mendoza Las Vegas Raiders
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Jeremiyah Love to finish top 10 at his position, by rushing yards
“And I think you're getting someone where the benchmark is going to be top ten most productive play at his position.”
Jeremiyah Love
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Position Order Calls1 waitingShow ▸

Sonny Styles to be the second or third best player of role in the class at his position off the board
“I love Sunny Styles. I think he's maybe the second or third best player of role in the class.”
Sonny Styles
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?