Ollie ConnollyApr 15, 2026
Connolly says Ruben Bain will go between the seventh and twelfth picks with 12 as their floor, floats David Bailey as a possible No. 2 overall pick, values Messidor in the twenties, expects Jermad McCoy to be the first cornerback drafted, and believes Malachi Lawrence will end up the most impactful edge player of the class and a first-round pick.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Ollie Connolly said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI would be pretty stunned if he was not the first one of these corners taken.
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- Ranking the 2026 NFL Draft: Edge Rushers and Cornerbacks
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidApr 15
- GradedAug 5–14
- 1David Bailey to be picked at number 2“they just designed their offensive game plan around David Bailey, who might be the second pick in the draft”
- 2Malachi Lawrence to be picked “the first round” (picks 1–32)“I think fifteen is where it starts... they would struggle to sleep that night if they didn't come away from the first round with Malachi Lawrence.”
- 3Jermod McCoy to be 1st cornerback off the board“I would be pretty stunned if he was not the first one of these corners taken.”
- 4Malachi Lawrence to finish top 1 at his position, by an unstated measure“I think in three four years, I really do think he's gonna be the guy. He was the most impactful from the group.”
- 5Akheem Mesidor to be picked “more in the twenties type range”“What would you invest in his fifteen two highs? It more in the twenties type range.”
- 6Rueben Bain to be picked “from the seventh pick to the twelfth pick, with twelve as the floor”“I think he was always going to go probably from the seventh pick to the twelfth pick, and I was still put twelve as the floor.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bailey to be picked at number 21 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 2 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Malachi Lawrence to be picked “the first round” (picks 1–32)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 23 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Jermod McCoy to be 1st cornerback off the board3 | Position Order Calls | — | 2.21 | 21.34 | −19.13 | |
| Malachi Lawrence to finish top 1 at his position, by an unstated measure4 | Positional Finishes | — | — | — | — | |
| Akheem Mesidor to be picked “more in the twenties type range”5 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Rueben Bain to be picked “from the seventh pick to the twelfth pick, with twelve as the floor”6 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · 2 waiting · 1 too vague to check | 67.4 | 40.4 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 claims — 4 mock draft picks, 1 position order call and 1 positional finish — the 5 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of the 5 calls we can check have settled so far, averaging 67.4 out of 100, against 40.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
What happenedWent 2mocked at 2100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Mock Draft PicksMalachi Lawrence
Malachi Lawrence to be picked “the first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 23100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Malachi Lawrence
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 23
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
3Position Order CallsJermod McCoyTennessee Titans
Jermod McCoy to be 1st cornerback off the board
VerdictMiss2.21Miss · naive 21.342.21this call−21.34a naive guess=−19.13worse than naive×1difficulty=−19.13skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 27 at random averages 21.34
- skill:
- −19.13
- player:
- Jermod McCoy
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 2.21
- baseline:
- 21.34
- position:
- cornerback
- class size:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 12
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
4Positional FinishesMalachi Lawrence
Malachi Lawrence to finish top 1 at his position, by an unstated measure
VerdictToo vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
5Mock Draft PicksAkheem MesidorMiami Dolphins
Akheem Mesidor to be picked “more in the twenties type range”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Mock Draft PicksRueben BainMiami Dolphins
Rueben Bain to be picked “from the seventh pick to the twelfth pick, with twelve as the floor”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
67.4naive 40.4
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Alain Poupart · Roster Spot Calls · Carlos Washington · Miss 0
Poupart expects rookie guard Kadyn Proctor to clear concussion protocol and play against Detroit, sees Ollie Gordon II continuing as the Dolphins' workhorse back, and thinks practice squad back Carlos Washington Jr. could be elevated for the Lions game.Nick Brinkerhoff · Score Predictions · Miami Dolphins · Hit 100
Predicts a 23-20 Dolphins win over the Jets.Mike Kadlick · Game Outcome Picks · Miami Dolphins · Hit 100
Picks the Dolphins to beat the Jets.Alain Poupart · Score Predictions · Miami Dolphins · Hit 98
Picks the Dolphins to upset the Jets 24-20, citing New York's run-defense problems against a Miami ground game led by Ollie Gordon II and Malik Willis.Alain Poupart · Game Outcome Picks · Miami Dolphins · Hit 100
Picks the Jets to beat the Dolphins 19-17, while predicting Miami will get its win over New York in the rematch five weeks later.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.