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Ollie Connolly· Apr 15, 2026

Connolly says Ruben Bain will go between the seventh and twelfth picks with 12 as his floor, floats David Bailey as a possible No. 2 overall pick, values Messidor in the twenties, expects Jermad McCoy to be the first cornerback drafted, and believes Malachi Lawrence will end up the most impactful edge player of the class and a first-round pick.

“I would be pretty stunned if he was not the first one of these corners taken.”

said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

6 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks, 1 position order call and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 67.4 out of 100, against 40.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
2They said
2What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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Who this take is about

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyApr 15, 2026

    David Bailey to be picked at number 2

    “they just designed their offensive game plan around David Bailey, who might be the second pick in the draft”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    David Bailey
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksMalachi LawrenceApr 15, 2026

    Malachi Lawrence to be picked “the first round” (picks 1–32)

    “I think fifteen is where it starts... they would struggle to sleep that night if they didn't come away from the first round with Malachi Lawrence.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Malachi Lawrence
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    23
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    the first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Position Order CallsJermod McCoyTennessee TitansApr 15, 2026

    Jermod McCoy to be 1st cornerback off the board

    “I would be pretty stunned if he was not the first one of these corners taken.”

    Miss · 2Scored 2.21a naive guess scored 21.34-19.13 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 27 at random averages 21.34
    skill:
    -19.13
    player:
    Jermod McCoy
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    2.21
    baseline:
    21.34
    position:
    cornerback
    class size:
    27
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    12
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Positional FinishesMalachi LawrenceApr 15, 2026

    Malachi Lawrence to finish top 1 at his position, by an unstated measure

    “I think in three four years, I really do think he's gonna be the guy. He was the most impactful from the group.”

    Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.

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  • Mock Draft PicksRueben BainMiami DolphinsApr 15, 2026

    Rueben Bain to be picked “from the seventh pick to the twelfth pick, with twelve as the floor”

    “I think he was always going to go probably from the seventh pick to the twelfth pick, and I was still put twelve as the floor.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksAkheem MesidorMiami DolphinsApr 15, 2026

    Akheem Mesidor to be picked “more in the twenties type range”

    “What would you invest in his fifteen two highs? It more in the twenties type range.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

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