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Writes at Steve Deace Show
Across 5 graded calls in 5 articles, Todd Erzen scores 20% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -20.2, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are election pundits overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 5 calls · one square per call
1hits20% of graded
4misses80%
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
5 graded calls in 5 articles, newest first.
“So are you saying that because you just... You effectively think the house is pretty much gone? / I mean, I thought the house was gone, like, since Memorial Day.”
The same 21, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Todd Erzen isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
“Who wins the Michigan senate race? Aaron, Mike Rogers or El Sayed? Mike Rogers. Todd. El Sayed.”
“Who wins as of today, the presidential election thirty nine days from now? Who do you think it is, Todd? Kamala. ... Seven.”
“But but I will say Oregon governor. I think that that seems more likely to me.”
“Should I be calling it a fait accompli? It seemed like it for a while... She's number one. Like, I'm not holding it. She will win.”