Todd ErzenOct 26, 2022
Erzen treated Kari Lake's victory in Arizona's governor race as all but settled, saying they will win.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace ShowHear the original
0Miss · out of 100
Katie Hobbs wonWhat happenedcalled Kari Lake
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty
What Todd Erzen said
She will win.
- Where it was said
- Steve Deace Show
- The episode
- John Fetterman's Candidacy Is an EMBARRASSMENT ... and That's the Point | 10/26/22
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 26, 2022
- Election DayNov 8, 2022
- GradedOct 10, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Kari Lake to win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
What happenedKatie Hobbs woncalled Kari Lake0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.02difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-governor-az
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Katie Hobbs
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kari Lake
- days before the vote when called:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.