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Todd ErzenOct 30, 2026

Harrison said they have considered the House lost to Democrats since Memorial Day, framing the post-election story as how quickly the first impeachment vote comes.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace ShowHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+100Skillafter difficulty

What Todd Erzen said

I mean, I thought the house was gone, like, since Memorial Day.
Todd Erzen’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
Steve Deace Show
The episode
MIDTERMS PREDICTIONS: The Deace Group Goes On the Record | 10/30/26
The original
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  1. SaidOct 30
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “So are you saying that because you just... You effectively think the house is pretty much gone? / I mean, I thought the house was gone, like, since Memorial Day.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    100
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
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