Asked who wins the presidential election as of that day, Erzen picked Kamala Harris, rating their confidence a seven out of ten.

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.