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Todd ErzenNov 4, 2022

Harrison picked a Republican upset win in the Oregon governor's race as the most likely surprise of election night.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace ShowHear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Tina Kotek wonWhat happenedcalled Christine Drazan
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
−100Skillafter difficulty

What Todd Erzen said

But but I will say Oregon governor. I think that that seems more likely to me.
Our reading: Republicans to win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election
Where it was said
Steve Deace Show
The episode
Red Wave, Red Tsunami, or Red Wedding? | Guest: Jason Johnson | 11/4/22
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidNov 4, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Republicans to win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election

    What happenedTina Kotek woncalled Christine Drazan
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2022-governor-or
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    −100
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Tina Kotek
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 Oregon gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Christine Drazan
    days before the vote when called:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

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