Ryan Girdusky· Nov 8, 2022

Gerdusky forecast a 53-seat Republican Senate and 239 Republican House seats with a net gain of roughly 35-36 seats, picked Laxalt in Nevada, Republicans in Virginia's 2nd and Bo Hines in North Carolina's 13th, doubted Tudor Dixon in Michigan, expected Vance to win Ohio by more than ten points, and named Lee Zeldin as his likeliest upset.

“I predicted a couple of weeks ago that it was going to be a fifty three sen Senate Republicans and then two hundred and they're gonna pick up thirty two hundred and thirty nine House to eat Republicans. I'm about the same place.”

said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show · read the original →

11 checkable claims — 5 race winners, 3 seat counts, 2 control of congress and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 11 have settled, averaging 36 out of 100, against 61.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

11 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race MarginsNov 8, 2022
“I think Jade Evans is gonna win by over ten points. He's gonna outperform Trump's probably an eleven or twelve percent”
Close · 61Scored 61.1a naive guess scored 38.9+22.2 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
22.2
topic:
elections
what happened:
6.11
in their words:
win by over ten points
read as:
as written
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
JD Vance
accuracy:
61.1
baseline:
38.9
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
6.11
their party:
Republican
their range:
10 to 100
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“You said you like fifty three in the Senate, two thirty nine in the House.”
Miss · 15Scored 15a naive guess scored 55-40 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−40
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
15
baseline:
55
they said:
239
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“They are likely to pick up the second, they are not as likely to pick up the seventh.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-va-02
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
likely to pick up the second
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Jen Kiggans
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jen Kiggans
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“they're gonna pick up thirty two hundred and thirty nine House to eat Republicans”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“Pick one upset race where that you feel the best about ... Which one is it? Liez Elvin ... I just I feel the momentum for Lee.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Lee Zeldin
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“it was going to be a fifty three sen Senate Republicans ... I'm about the same place”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“he said that Blaxalt was gonna lose in the Senate. But seeing how votes are going right now, I don't know how that's gonna happen. I mean that I don't see how that's going to happen.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“Boheins is likely to win.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-nc-13
election year:
2022
skill:
−50
topic:
elections
in their words:
likely to win
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Wiley Nickel
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in North Carolina's district 13
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bo Hines
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“what are we looking at for total congressional pickups right now? ... I would say about thirty five thirty six, give or take it.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 55-55 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−55
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
in their words:
35-36
read as:
as written
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
0
baseline:
55
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
35 to 36
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“I predicted a couple of weeks ago that it was going to be a fifty three sen Senate Republicans ... I'm about the same place.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 80-60 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−60
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
20
baseline:
80
they said:
53
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I don't think Tutor Dick I'm gonna win in Michigan. I don't feel good about Michigan at all.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-mi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Gretchen Whitmer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Gretchen Whitmer
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.