Steve Deace· Oct 26, 2022

Deace forecast a Republican "tsunami" in the midterms, buying a listener's projection that the GOP wins the governorships in nearly all of the closest states Biden carried in 2020, and separately predicting Tudor Dixon beats Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, Kari Lake wins Arizona, and Chuck Grassley wins re-election in Iowa by a narrower margin than expected.

“We are going to see a tsunami here. The die is cast.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →

11 checkable claims — 11 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 11 have settled, averaging 36.4 out of 100, against 72.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

11 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“After the midterms, the GOP will have won the governor race in nine out of the 10 closest states that Biden, quote, unquote, won in 2020... I'm I'm going to buy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Tony Evers
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Michels
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“After the midterms, the GOP will have won the governor race in nine out of the 10 closest states that Biden, quote, unquote, won in 2020... I'm I'm going to buy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-mi
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Gretchen Whitmer
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tudor Dixon
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“After the midterms, the GOP will have won the governor race in nine out of the 10 closest states that Biden, quote, unquote, won in 2020... I'm I'm going to buy.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Joe Lombardo
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Nevada gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Joe Lombardo
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“in Iowa, voters are tired of Grassley's shtick, and he will win but, be much closer than expected. I agree with this... Bye.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-ia
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Chuck Grassley
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chuck Grassley
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“After the midterms, the GOP will have won the governor race in nine out of the 10 closest states that Biden, quote, unquote, won in 2020... I'm I'm going to buy.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Chris Sununu
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chris Sununu
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Three points is a lot... but I do believe Tudor Dixon is going to win. So because I agree with the premise, I will buy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-mi
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Gretchen Whitmer
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tudor Dixon
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“That's why Arizona will be declaring an invasion here in January, and Texas will still be pondering the lint in its naval”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-az
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Katie Hobbs
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kari Lake
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“After the midterms, the GOP will have won the governor race in nine out of the 10 closest states that Biden, quote, unquote, won in 2020. Those states are Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Virginia... those are my projections. I'm I'm going to buy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-az
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Katie Hobbs
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kari Lake
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“After the midterms, the GOP will have won the governor race in nine out of the 10 closest states that Biden, quote, unquote, won in 2020... I'm I'm going to buy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-mn
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Tim Walz
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Scott Jensen
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“After the midterms, the GOP will have won the governor race in nine out of the 10 closest states that Biden, quote, unquote, won in 2020... I'm I'm going to buy.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“After the midterms, the GOP will have won the governor race in nine out of the 10 closest states that Biden, quote, unquote, won in 2020... I'm I'm going to buy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Josh Shapiro
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Doug Mastriano
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.