Krystal Ball· Nov 1, 2022

She said Republicans are almost certain to take control of the House even if the Senate is more uncertain, and described Charlie Crist's challenge to Ron DeSantis in Florida as a doomed race.

“Republicans are almost certain to be in control of the House”

said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Control of CongressNov 1, 2022
“I think everyone almost certainly expects that the Senate may be a little bit of a dice Yer proposition by Republicans are almost certain to be in control of the House”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
101
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“He went to Florida to back up Charlie crist who's like in a doomed race against Rondo Sandas.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.