Skip to main content

Dylan SandersSep 24, 2026

Picked the Saints to beat the Raiders at home in Week 3 by a score of 31-17, with New Orleans getting off to a fast start.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast)Hear the original

36Miss · out of 100
Raiders 35–27What happenedcalled Saints by 14 · lost by 8
32.07A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
35.71This callout of 100
+6.89Skillafter difficulty

What Dylan Sanders said

I do again have the Saints winning this game. In terms of score prediction, I'll go I'll go thirty one seventeen.
Our reading: New Orleans Saints 31 — Raiders 17
The episode
SAINTS SQUAD SHOW: Tyler Shough & Chris Olave Are Growing Into a Top 5 QB-WR Duo In the NFL
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidSep 24
  2. PlayedSep 27
  3. GradedSep 28

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 35.7 out of 100, against 32.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsNew Orleans Saints

    New Orleans Saints 31 — Raiders 17

    What happenedRaiders 35–27called Saints by 14 · lost by 8
    35.71Miss · naive 32.07
    35.71this call32.07a naive guess3.64better than naive1.89difficulty+6.89skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Saints by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 31–17 calls a bigger Saints win (by 14) and more points (48).

    How this was scored
    score:
    35-27
    skill:
    6.89
    they picked:
    NO
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    35.71
    baseline:
    32.07
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    16
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    14
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Others on the same people

More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.