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Chris Broussard#77 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 16, 2026

Broussard took Dallas over Green Bay out of desperation, said a Chargers win in Kansas City would be one of the season's most shocking upsets, picked the Jets to upset the Patriots and the Texans to beat the Jaguars, and said Buffalo would beat New England the next time they meet.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 4calls landed2 hits · 2 misses · 1 waiting
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
75A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#77Chris Broussard’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Broussard said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
And I'm going with Dallas simply because of that, but they're more desperate.
Chris Broussard, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
First Things First (podcast)
The episode
Brewers sweep Dodgers, Broncos beat Seahawks, Ohio state vs. Indiana, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 16
  2. PlayedOct 18
  3. GradedOct 18–19
  1. 1Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers“But I would be... This would be one of the most shocking upsets of the season to me because the Chiefs... We know what Andy Reid is coming off a buy... I'd be shocked.”
  2. 2Dallas Cowboys to beat Packers“And I'm going with Dallas simply because of that, but they're more desperate.”
  3. 3New York Jets to beat Patriots“The Jets, Aaron Glenn has that defense popping... They sacked Deshaun Watson eight times last week... It's a division game. Anything can happen. (upset alert pick)”
  4. 4Houston Texans to beat Jags“So Texans over the Jags. The Jags been dying to give away a game, Nick... I got the Texans, Jack.”
  5. 5Buffalo Bills to beat New England“I think Buffalo is better. How is Buffalo better?... I bet you they beat them the next time they play.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers1Game Outcome PicksChiefs 22–61001000
Dallas Cowboys to beat Packers2Game Outcome PicksPackers 23–130100−172
New York Jets to beat Patriots3Game Outcome PicksPatriots 26–190100−172
Houston Texans to beat Jags4Game Outcome PicksTexans 34–311000+172
Buffalo Bills to beat New England5Game Outcome Picks————
5 calls · 2 hits · 2 misses · 1 waiting5075

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers

    What happenedChiefs 22–6Chargers at Chiefs
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.72difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Chiefs by 7.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (79%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    6-22
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksDallas Cowboys

    Dallas Cowboys to beat Packers

    What happenedPackers 23–13Cowboys at Packers
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.72difficulty−172skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Cowboys by 1.5 · a toss-up, Cowboys 51%, Packers 49%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    GB
    score:
    13-23
    skill:
    −172
    they picked:
    DAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    GB
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksNew York Jets

    New York Jets to beat Patriots

    What happenedPatriots 26–19Jets at Patriots
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.72difficulty−172skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Patriots by 7.5 · underdog pick, Jets about 1 in 4 (26%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    19-26
    skill:
    −172
    they picked:
    NYJ
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans

    Houston Texans to beat Jags

    What happenedTexans 34–31Texans at Jaguars
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.72difficulty+172skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Jaguars by 2.5 · underdog pick, Texans 44%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    HOU
    score:
    34-31
    skill:
    172
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat New England

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    50naive 75

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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