Clay Travis· Oct 25, 2022

Two weeks out from the midterms, Travis forecast a large Republican House gain of roughly 25 to 30 seats, said Adam Laxalt would win the Nevada Senate race, predicted Caroline Leavitt would win her New Hampshire House seat, and said Katie Britt would be Alabama's next senator.

“Out in Nevada, Adam Laxalt is going to win there.”

said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 85 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 25, 2022
“That's Katie Britt. Next Senator from the Great State of Alabama.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-al
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Katie Britt
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Alabama
decided in the:
general
they said:
Katie Britt
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2022
“Out in Nevada, Adam Laxalt is going to win there. It appears he now has a substantial lead, potentially flipping a seat”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsOct 25, 2022
“very, very favorable towards Publicans the House. We are now talking about potentially a twenty five or thirty seat pickup. That is where the gambling odds have it. This is not going to be remotely close.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 55-35.7 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−35.7
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
in their words:
a twenty five or thirty seat pickup
read as:
as written
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
20
baseline:
55
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
25 to 30
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.