Geoffrey Skelley· Sep 23, 2024

Skelley called West Virginia a certain Republican Senate pickup, predicted Mark Robinson would take about 45 percent and lose the North Carolina governor's race by roughly eight points, and said Trump would carry Texas and win Ohio easily.

“Honestly, I think Robinson's probably gonna get, like, 45% and lose by, like, eight.”

said on air, transcribed by us · FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 2 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 76.6 out of 100, against 40.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

45They said

40.1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race MarginsSep 23, 2024
“Honestly, I think Robinson's probably gonna get, like, 45% and lose by, like, eight.”
Close · 51Scored 51a naive guess scored 1+53 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-governor-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
53
topic:
elections
what happened:
40.1
result from:
wikipedia-2024-governor
who won:
Josh Stein
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
share of the vote
whose number:
Mark Robinson
accuracy:
51
baseline:
1
race name:
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
45
days before the vote when called:
42
difficulty:
1.06
they won:
no
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
14.8
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsSep 23, 2024
“Honestly, I think Robinson's probably gonna get, like, 45% and lose by, like, eight.”
Miss · 32Scored 32a naive guess scored 0+33.92 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-governor-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
33.92
topic:
elections
what happened:
−14.8
result from:
wikipedia-2024-governor
who won:
Josh Stein
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Mark Robinson
accuracy:
32
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
−8
days before the vote when called:
42
difficulty:
1.06
they won:
no
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
14.8
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersSep 23, 2024
“Sherrod Brown in Ohio ... he also is going to need a fair number of split ticket voters and states that Trump's gonna win easily”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
42
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersSep 23, 2024
“the fact that he retired basically made maybe a likely Republican pickup to a solid, safe, certain Republican pickup. And so there you go. That's one seat down for Republicans”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
106
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
in their words:
a solid, safe, certain Republican pickup
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
42
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersSep 23, 2024
“The problem for Allred, of course, though, is at the end of the day, Trump is very likely to carry Texas.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
very likely to carry Texas
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
42
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

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