Marcus Mosher· Sep 3, 2024
Mosher's Week 1 power rankings put the Chiefs first, 49ers second and Lions third, with the Patriots last. Along the way he predicts double-digit wins for Buffalo, a playoff return for the Rams, a Jets playoff berth if Rodgers stays healthy, calls the Bears an NFC sleeper, and says New England's offense will be the league's worst.
“As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, it will be a while before anyone overtakes the Kansas City Chiefs at the No. 1 spot.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 3, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
12 checkable claims — 4 depth chart calls, 2 playoff picks, 2 surprise team calls, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
10 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 71.2 out of 100, against 88.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Daniel Jones to move to New York Giants
“At this point, it only seems like a matter of time before the Giants move on from Daniel Jones.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2024
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- NYG
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- NYG/MIN
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsBuffalo BillsSep 3, 2024
Buffalo Bills to finish with 10 wins
“look for Josh Allen to find a way to post double-digit wins again”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 35+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 35
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Drake Maye to be 1st on the depth chart
“That is until Maye eventually takes over.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsBo NixDenver BroncosSep 3, 2024
Bo Nix to be 1st on the depth chart
“Bo Nix is the Denver Broncos' Week 1 starter”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- DEN
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Bo Nix
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew York GiantsSep 3, 2024
New York Giants to pick “inside the top 10” (picks 1–10)
“he'll likely be the reason why the Giants are picking inside the top 10 again next year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 6 the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- inside the top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2024
New York Jets to make the playoffs
“If he can stay healthy for 15 or more games, the Jets will be in the playoffs.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles RamsSep 3, 2024
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“the offense for the Rams is good enough to get them back to the postseason in 2024”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Derek Carr to be 1st on the depth chart
“Derek Carr is the starter in New Orleans”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NO
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Derek Carr
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Gardner Minshew to be 1st on the depth chart
“Gardner Minshew is the starter in Las Vegas, but don't expect the leash to be very long.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Gardner Minshew
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Power RankingsSep 3, 2024
“NFL Week 1 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots”
Close · 72Scored 71.55a naive guess scored 67.38+8.36 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 8.36
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 71.55
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsArizona CardinalsSep 3, 2024
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“With Kyler Murray fully healthy, the Arizona Cardinals are a stealth wild-card team in the NFC.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsChicago BearsSep 3, 2024
Chicago Bears to beat expectations
“The Bears are officially a sleeper in the NFC.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Aaron JonesHit · 100In previewing the 10 most intriguing fantasy performers of Week 2, Fitzmaurice expects Atlanta's quarterback problems to persist with Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play and Michael Penix Jr. not ready to return, flags Falcons slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. as a possible Week 2 returnee, and describes Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead back and Kaelon Black as the clear backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Rich HribarDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Hribar expects Tua Tagovailoa to be Atlanta's starting quarterback for Week 2 while Michael Penix stays out, with Penix's return closer to Week 4. He is unenthusiastic about the Falcons' offense either way and treats Bryce Young as a fringe fantasy starter.
- Bradley LockerDepth Chart Calls · Carson WentzHit · 100PFF's unsigned adjusted power rankings after Week 1 of the 2026 season place the Bills first, the Rams second and the Dolphins last, with notes on quarterback situations in Seattle, Minnesota and Cleveland.