Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 3, 2024
Mosher's Week 1 power rankings put the Chiefs first, 49ers second and Lions third, with the Patriots last. Along the way they predict double-digit wins for Buffalo, a playoff return for the Rams, a Jets playoff berth if Rodgers stays healthy, calls the Bears an NFC sleeper, and says New England's offense will be the league's worst.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marcus Mosher said
As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, it will be a while before anyone overtakes the Kansas City Chiefs at the No. 1 spot.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Week 1 Power Rankings: Texans Rise Into Top 5 | The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Sep 3, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidSep 3, 2024
- GradedAug 5–Oct 19, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade and Signing Calls | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Season Win Totals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team Draft Slot Calls | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Playoff Picks | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Power Rankings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surprise Team Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| All | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
How each call scored
12 checkable claims — 4 depth chart calls, 2 playoff picks, 2 surprise team calls, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
10 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 81.2 out of 100, against 78.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Trade and Signing Calls1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Daniel Jones to move to New York Giants
“At this point, it only seems like a matter of time before the Giants move on from Daniel Jones.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2024
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- NYG
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- reported:
- released (from NYG)
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Season Win Totals1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
Buffalo Bills to finish with 10 wins
“look for Josh Allen to find a way to post double-digit wins again”
13called 1040Close40 − 35 naive = 5 × 2 difficulty = +10 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 35
- they said:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Depth Chart Calls4 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Drake Maye to be 1st on the depth chart
“That is until Maye eventually takes over.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Bo Nix to be 1st on the depth chart
“Bo Nix is the Denver Broncos' Week 1 starter”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- DEN
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Bo Nix
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Derek Carr to be 1st on the depth chart
“Derek Carr is the starter in New Orleans”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NO
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Derek Carr
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Gardner Minshew to be 1st on the depth chart
“Gardner Minshew is the starter in Las Vegas, but don't expect the leash to be very long.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Gardner Minshew
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Team Draft Slot Calls1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
New York Giants to pick “inside the top 10” (picks 1–10)
“he'll likely be the reason why the Giants are picking inside the top 10 again next year”
Picked at 3100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 6 the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- inside the top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Playoff Picks1 hit · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
New York Jets to make the playoffs
“If he can stay healthy for 15 or more games, the Jets will be in the playoffs.”
Missed the playoffs0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- skill:
- −200
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“the offense for the Rams is good enough to get them back to the postseason in 2024”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Power Rankings1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
“NFL Week 1 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots”
71.55Close71.55 − 67.38 naive = 4.17 × 2 difficulty = +8.36 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 8.36
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 71.55
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Surprise Team Calls2 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“With Kyler Murray fully healthy, the Arizona Cardinals are a stealth wild-card team in the NFC.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Daniel Jones, New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Drake Maye, New England Patriots, Bo Nix, Denver Broncos, New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams, Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints, Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Michael Moore · Depth Chart Calls · Shedeur Sanders · Hit 100
In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. They also expect Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.Nic Bodiford · Depth Chart Calls · Joe Fagnano · Hit 100
Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.Jordan Dajani · Depth Chart Calls · Drew Kendall · Miss 0
Dajani expects Cam Jurgens to move back to center as the Ravens' starter after the trade, and projects a rebuilt Eagles offensive line for Week 5 with Jordan Mailata, Willie Lampkin, Drew Kendall, Tyler Steen and Markel Bell starting from left tackle to right tackle.