Ryan ReynoldsSep 5, 2023

Reynolds predicted win-loss records for all 32 teams, playoff seeding for both conferences, several league-leader player predictions, and picked the Bengals to beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

25 of 66calls landed

25 hits · 13 close calls · 28 misses · all settled

47.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 66 calls

55.6A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

66 of 66Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Ryan Reynolds said

Super Bowl Prediction: Bengals over Cowboys

Ryan Reynolds, the lead quote

Where it was published: The 33rd Team
The piece: 2023 NFL Record Predictions: Win-Loss Projections For Every Team | The 33rd Team
The original: The copy as archived Jul 16, 2024
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

SaidSep 5, 2023
GradedAug 5–17, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses
Division Winners	4	0	4
Seeding, Byes and Home Field	1	0	1
Conference Champions	0	0	2
Positional Finishes	2	0	4
Award Picks	0	0	1
Season Win Totals	11	13	8
Playoff Picks	7	0	7
Super Bowl Picks	0	0	1
All	25	13	28

How each call scored

66 checkable claims — 32 season win totals, 14 playoff picks, 8 division winners, 6 positional finishes, 2 conference champions, 2 seeding, byes and home field, 1 award pick and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 38 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 66 have settled, averaging 47.7 out of 100, against 55.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Division Winners4 hits · 4 missesShow ▸

Cincinnati Bengals to win the division
“AFC North Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6 ... 4. Bengals”
Cincinnati Bengals
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
CIN
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CIN
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers to win the division
“NFC West San Francisco 49ers: 12-5 ... 1. 49ers”
San Francisco 49ers
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
SF
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“AFC South Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-5 ... 1. Jaguars”
Jacksonville Jaguars
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
JAX
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“AFC West Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5 ... 2. Chiefs”
Kansas City Chiefs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
KC
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
Detroit Lions to win the division
“NFC North Detroit Lions: 10-7 ... 4. Lions”
Detroit Lions
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
DET
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
MIN
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
New Orleans Saints to win the division
“NFC South New Orleans Saints: 11-6 ... 3. Saints”
New Orleans Saints
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
−200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
NO
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
New York Jets to win the division
“AFC East New York Jets: 12-5 ... AFC Playoff Seeding: ... 3. Jets”
New York Jets
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
−200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
NYJ
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to win the division
“NFC East Dallas Cowboys: 12-5 ... 2. Cowboys”
Dallas Cowboys
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
DAL
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?

Seeding, Byes and Home Field1 hit · 1 missShow ▸

San Francisco 49ers to take the top seed
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 1. 49ers 2. Cowboys 3. Saints 4. Lions 5. Seahawks 6. Eagles 7. Falcons”
San Francisco 49ers
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
they picked:
SF
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
checked as:
the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
actual tier:
bye
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where they finished last season (host)
weeks in the season:
18
claimed seed:
1
claimed tier:
bye
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to take the top seed
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 1. Jaguars 2. Chiefs 3. Jets 4. Bengals 5. Bills 6. Ravens 7. Chargers”
Jacksonville Jaguars
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
checked as:
the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
actual tier:
missed the playoffs
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where they finished last season (host)
weeks in the season:
18
claimed seed:
1
claimed tier:
bye
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Conference Champions2 missesShow ▸

Cincinnati Bengals to reach the Super Bowl
“AFC Super Bowl Representative: Cincinnati Bengals”
Cincinnati Bengals
KC and SF wonpicked CIN
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
−200
they picked:
CIN
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
champions:
KC, SF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl
“NFC Super Bowl Representative: Dallas Cowboys”
Dallas Cowboys
KC and SF wonpicked DAL
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
−200
they picked:
DAL
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
champions:
KC, SF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?

Positional Finishes2 hits · 4 missesShow ▸

Micah Parsons to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks
“Micah Parsons leads the league in sacks and wins Defensive Player of the Year.”
Micah Parsons Dallas Cowboys
Finished #3called #1 · by sacks
83.33Hit
83.33 − 91.67 naive = −8.34 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
−16.67
player:
Micah Parsons
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
linebackers
ranked by:
sacks
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
4
actual finish:
3
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Ja'Marr Chase to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving tds
“Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in receiving touchdowns.”
Ja'Marr Chase Cincinnati Bengals
Finished #23called #1 · by receiving tds
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Ja'Marr Chase
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
WR
ranked by:
receiving tds
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
7
actual finish:
23
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Joe Burrow to finish top 1 at his position, by passing tds
“Burrow leads the league in touchdown passes.”
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals
Finished #22called #1 · by passing tds
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Joe Burrow
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
passing tds
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
3
actual finish:
22
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Nick Chubb to finish top 1 at his position, by rushing yards
“Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing yards.”
Nick Chubb Cleveland Browns
Finished #73called #1 · by rushing yards
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Nick Chubb
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
RB
ranked by:
rushing yards
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
3
actual finish:
73
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Amon-Ra St. Brown to finish top 1 at his position, by receptions
“Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the league in receptions.”
Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions
Finished #3called #1 · by receptions
83.33Hit
83.33 − 83.33 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Amon-Ra St. Brown
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
83.33
position:
WR
ranked by:
receptions
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
5
actual finish:
3
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Justin Herbert to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
“Herbert leads the league in passing yards.”
Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers
Finished #18called #1 · by passing yards
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Justin Herbert
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
passing yards
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
2
actual finish:
18
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?

Award Picks1 missShow ▸

Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year
“Micah Parsons leads the league in sacks and wins Defensive Player of the Year.”
Micah Parsons Dallas Cowboys
Myles Garrett woncalled Micah Parsons
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Nick Bosa, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Micah Parsons
season:
2023
who won:
Myles Garrett
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Season Win Totals11 hits · 13 close calls · 8 missesShow ▸

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 3 wins
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-14”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9called 3
0Miss
0 − 85 naive = −85 × 2 difficulty = −170 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
naive:
8.25
skill:
−170
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
85
they said:
3
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Denver Broncos to finish with 8 wins
“Denver Broncos: 8-9”
Denver Broncos
8called 8
100Hit
100 − 75 naive = 25 × 2 difficulty = +50 skill
How this was scored
team:
DEN
naive:
6.75
skill:
50
what happened:
8
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
75
they said:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
New England Patriots to finish with 7 wins
“New England Patriots: 7-10”
New England Patriots
4called 7
40Close
40 − 15 naive = 25 × 2 difficulty = +50 skill
How this was scored
team:
NE
naive:
8.25
skill:
50
what happened:
4
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
15
they said:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 4 wins
“Las Vegas Raiders: 4-13”
Las Vegas Raiders
8called 4
20Miss
20 − 85 naive = −65 × 2 difficulty = −130 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
naive:
7.25
skill:
−130
what happened:
8
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
85
they said:
4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 12 wins
“Dallas Cowboys: 12-5”
Dallas Cowboys
12called 12
100Hit
100 − 65 naive = 35 × 2 difficulty = +70 skill
How this was scored
team:
DAL
naive:
10.25
skill:
70
what happened:
12
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
65
they said:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins
“Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5”
Kansas City Chiefs
11called 12
80Hit
80 − 95 naive = −15 × 2 difficulty = −30 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
naive:
11.25
skill:
−30
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
95
they said:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Cleveland Browns to finish with 9 wins
“Cleveland Browns: 9-8”
Cleveland Browns
11called 9
60Close
60 − 35 naive = 25 × 2 difficulty = +50 skill
How this was scored
team:
CLE
naive:
7.75
skill:
50
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
35
they said:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Miami Dolphins to finish with 10 wins
“Miami Dolphins: 10-7”
Miami Dolphins
11called 10
80Hit
80 − 55 naive = 25 × 2 difficulty = +50 skill
How this was scored
team:
MIA
naive:
8.75
skill:
50
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
55
they said:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Detroit Lions to finish with 10 wins
“Detroit Lions: 10-7”
Detroit Lions
12called 10
60Close
60 − 35 naive = 25 × 2 difficulty = +50 skill
How this was scored
team:
DET
naive:
8.75
skill:
50
what happened:
12
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
35
they said:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Arizona Cardinals to finish with 2 wins
“Arizona Cardinals: 2-15”
Arizona Cardinals
4called 2
60Close
60 − 55 naive = 5 × 2 difficulty = +10 skill
How this was scored
team:
ARI
naive:
6.25
skill:
10
what happened:
4
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
55
they said:
2
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Washington Commanders to finish with 6 wins
“Washington Commanders: 6-11”
Washington Commanders
4called 6
60Close
60 − 15 naive = 45 × 2 difficulty = +90 skill
How this was scored
team:
WAS
naive:
8.25
skill:
90
what happened:
4
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
15
they said:
6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Philadelphia Eagles to finish with 11 wins
“Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6”
Philadelphia Eagles
11called 11
100Hit
100 − 95 naive = 5 × 2 difficulty = +10 skill
How this was scored
team:
PHI
naive:
11.25
skill:
10
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
they said:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Indianapolis Colts to finish with 4 wins
“Indianapolis Colts: 4-13”
Indianapolis Colts
9called 4
0Miss
0 − 45 naive = −45 × 2 difficulty = −90 skill
How this was scored
team:
IND
naive:
6.25
skill:
−90
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
45
they said:
4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 12 wins
“San Francisco 49ers: 12-5”
San Francisco 49ers
12called 12
100Hit
100 − 75 naive = 25 × 2 difficulty = +50 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
naive:
10.75
skill:
50
what happened:
12
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
75
they said:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
New York Jets to finish with 12 wins
“New York Jets: 12-5”
New York Jets
7called 12
0Miss
0 − 85 naive = −85 × 2 difficulty = −170 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
naive:
7.75
skill:
−170
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
85
they said:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Chicago Bears to finish with 8 wins
“Chicago Bears: 8-9”
Chicago Bears
7called 8
80Hit
80 − 75 naive = 5 × 2 difficulty = +10 skill
How this was scored
team:
CHI
naive:
5.75
skill:
10
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
75
they said:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
New Orleans Saints to finish with 11 wins
“New Orleans Saints: 11-6”
New Orleans Saints
9called 11
60Close
60 − 75 naive = −15 × 2 difficulty = −30 skill
How this was scored
team:
NO
naive:
7.75
skill:
−30
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
75
they said:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Minnesota Vikings to finish with 8 wins
“Minnesota Vikings: 8-9”
Minnesota Vikings
7called 8
80Hit
80 − 25 naive = 55 × 2 difficulty = +110 skill
How this was scored
team:
MIN
naive:
10.75
skill:
110
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
25
they said:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Carolina Panthers to finish with 6 wins
“Carolina Panthers: 6-11”
Carolina Panthers
2called 6
20Miss
20 − 0 naive = 20 × 2 difficulty = +40 skill
How this was scored
team:
CAR
naive:
7.75
skill:
40
what happened:
2
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
0
they said:
6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 12 wins
“Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-5”
Jacksonville Jaguars
9called 12
40Close
40 − 95 naive = −55 × 2 difficulty = −110 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
naive:
8.75
skill:
−110
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
95
they said:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 11 wins
“Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6”
Los Angeles Chargers
5called 11
0Miss
0 − 15 naive = −15 × 2 difficulty = −30 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
naive:
9.25
skill:
−30
what happened:
5
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
15
they said:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
New York Giants to finish with 8 wins
“New York Giants: 8-9”
New York Giants
6called 8
60Close
60 − 45 naive = 15 × 2 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYG
naive:
8.75
skill:
30
what happened:
6
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
45
they said:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Tennessee Titans to finish with 7 wins
“Tennessee Titans: 7-10”
Tennessee Titans
6called 7
80Hit
80 − 65 naive = 15 × 2 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
team:
TEN
naive:
7.75
skill:
30
what happened:
6
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
65
they said:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals to finish with 11 wins
“Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6”
Cincinnati Bengals
9called 11
60Close
60 − 75 naive = −15 × 2 difficulty = −30 skill
How this was scored
team:
CIN
naive:
10.25
skill:
−30
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
75
they said:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to finish with 11 wins
“Baltimore Ravens: 11-6”
Baltimore Ravens
13called 11
60Close
60 − 25 naive = 35 × 2 difficulty = +70 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
naive:
9.25
skill:
70
what happened:
13
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
25
they said:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Green Bay Packers to finish with 7 wins
“Green Bay Packers: 7-10”
Green Bay Packers
9called 7
60Close
60 − 85 naive = −25 × 2 difficulty = −50 skill
How this was scored
team:
GB
naive:
8.25
skill:
−50
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
85
they said:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Atlanta Falcons to finish with 9 wins
“Atlanta Falcons: 9-8”
Atlanta Falcons
7called 9
60Close
60 − 85 naive = −25 × 2 difficulty = −50 skill
How this was scored
team:
ATL
naive:
7.75
skill:
−50
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
85
they said:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 10 wins
“Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-7”
Pittsburgh Steelers
10called 10
100Hit
100 − 75 naive = 25 × 2 difficulty = +50 skill
How this was scored
team:
PIT
naive:
8.75
skill:
50
what happened:
10
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
75
they said:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks to finish with 11 wins
“Seattle Seahawks: 11-6”
Seattle Seahawks
9called 11
60Close
60 − 95 naive = −35 × 2 difficulty = −70 skill
How this was scored
team:
SEA
naive:
8.75
skill:
−70
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
95
they said:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Houston Texans to finish with 5 wins
“Houston Texans: 5-12”
Houston Texans
10called 5
0Miss
0 − 15 naive = −15 × 2 difficulty = −30 skill
How this was scored
team:
HOU
naive:
5.75
skill:
−30
what happened:
10
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
15
they said:
5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to finish with 11 wins
“Buffalo Bills: 11-6”
Buffalo Bills
11called 11
100Hit
100 − 95 naive = 5 × 2 difficulty = +10 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
naive:
10.75
skill:
10
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
they said:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams to finish with 4 wins
“Los Angeles Rams: 4-13”
Los Angeles Rams
10called 4
0Miss
0 − 35 naive = −35 × 2 difficulty = −70 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAR
naive:
6.75
skill:
−70
what happened:
10
season:
2023
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
35
they said:
4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Playoff Picks7 hits · 7 missesShow ▸

Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 4. Bengals”
Cincinnati Bengals
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
CIN
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 5. Bills”
Buffalo Bills
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 7. Chargers”
Los Angeles Chargers
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 6. Ravens”
Baltimore Ravens
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 2. Cowboys”
Dallas Cowboys
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
DAL
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 3. Saints”
New Orleans Saints
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NO
skill:
−200
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 2. Chiefs”
Kansas City Chiefs
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Philadelphia Eagles to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 6. Eagles”
Philadelphia Eagles
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
PHI
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 5. Seahawks”
Seattle Seahawks
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
SEA
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 1. 49ers”
San Francisco 49ers
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Atlanta Falcons to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 7. Falcons”
Atlanta Falcons
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
team:
ATL
skill:
−200
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Detroit Lions to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 4. Lions”
Detroit Lions
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
team:
DET
skill:
200
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 1. Jaguars”
Jacksonville Jaguars
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
New York Jets to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 3. Jets”
New York Jets
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
skill:
−200
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Super Bowl Picks1 missShow ▸

Cincinnati Bengals to win the Super Bowl
“Super Bowl Prediction: Bengals over Cowboys”
Cincinnati Bengals
KC won itpicked CIN
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
−200
they picked:
CIN
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
champion:
KC
runner up:
SF
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.
Parker Hurley · Roster Spot Calls · Khalid Kareem · Miss 0
Hurley predicts the 49ers will release Khalil Kareem when Nate Hobbs is activated and cut Brandin Cooks when C.J. West returns, while arguing Sebastian Valdez won't be the one let go and no cornerback will be cut.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.

Reynolds predicted win-loss records for all 32 teams, playoff seeding for both conferences, several league-leader player predictions, and picked the Bengals to beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl.

What Ryan Reynolds said

Box score, by kind

How each call scored

Who this take is about

Others on the same people

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