Seth Walder· Oct 4, 2026
Walder made a 'bold prediction' for each Week 4 game — including receiving and rushing yardage marks, sacks, an interception and a Dolphins upset — and picked final scores for all 15 games on the slate.
“The Dolphins will win the game.”
published in writing · read the original →
17 checkable claims — 15 score predictions, 1 availability call and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 17 have settled so far, averaging 69.1 out of 100, against 10.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Colts at Commanders 24 calls
- Cowboys at Texans 31 calls
- Packers at Buccaneers 22 calls
- Rams at Eagles 28 calls
- Titans at Ravens 17 calls
- Patriots at Bills 36 calls
- Jets at Bears 26 calls
- Cardinals at Giants 20 calls
- Jaguars at Bengals 30 calls
- Dolphins at Vikings 23 calls
- Chiefs at Raiders 35 calls
- Chargers at Seahawks 25 calls
- Broncos at 49ers 27 calls
- Lions at Panthers 42 calls
- Falcons at Saints 21 calls
17 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Score PredictionsIndianapolis ColtsOct 4, 2026
Indianapolis Colts 23 — Commanders 19
“Walder's pick: Colts 23, Commanders 19”
Close · 69Scored 69.05a naive guess scored 10.86+106.49 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 30-13
- skill:
- 106.49
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 69.05
- baseline:
- 10.86
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 0.56
- predicted margin:
- 4
- Game Outcome PicksMiami DolphinsOct 4, 2026
Miami Dolphins to beat Vikings
“Bold prediction: The Dolphins will win the game. ... Miami is a huge long shot, but I wonder if a super run-heavy approach ... could earn the Dolphins a victory.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsCincinnati BengalsOct 4, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Jaguars 24
“Walder's pick: Bengals 27, Jaguars 24”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsHouston TexansOct 4, 2026
Houston Texans 27 — Cowboys 26
“Walder's pick: Texans 27, Cowboys 26”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsMiami DolphinsOct 4, 2026
Miami Dolphins 20 — Vikings 17
“Walder's pick: Dolphins 20, Vikings 17”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsSeattle SeahawksOct 4, 2026
Seattle Seahawks 26 — Chargers 23
“Walder's pick: Seahawks 26, Chargers 23”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsLas Vegas RaidersOct 4, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders 24 — Chiefs 22
“Walder's pick: Raiders 24, Chiefs 22”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsBuffalo BillsOct 4, 2026
Buffalo Bills 24 — Patriots 20
“Walder's pick: Bills 24, Patriots 20”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles RamsOct 4, 2026
Los Angeles Rams 27 — Eagles 14
“Walder's pick: Rams 27, Eagles 14”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsChicago BearsOct 4, 2026
Chicago Bears 30 — Jets 27
“Walder's pick: Bears 30, Jets 27”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsBaltimore RavensOct 4, 2026
Baltimore Ravens 34 — Titans 20
“Walder's pick: Ravens 34, Titans 20”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 4, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 — Packers 20
“Walder's pick: Buccaneers 23, Packers 20”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsArizona CardinalsOct 4, 2026
Arizona Cardinals 29 — Giants 6
“Walder's pick: Cardinals 29, Giants 6”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsSan Francisco 49ersOct 4, 2026
San Francisco 49ers 26 — Broncos 20
“Walder's pick: 49ers 26, Broncos 20”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsDetroit LionsOct 4, 2026
Detroit Lions 34 — Panthers 14
“Walder's pick: Lions 34, Panthers 14”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
“Bold prediction: The Giants' newly acquired backup QB, J.J. McCarthy, will enter late in a blowout loss. (Week 4 vs. Cardinals)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Score PredictionsNew Orleans SaintsOct 4, 2026
New Orleans Saints 19 — Falcons 16
“Walder's pick: Saints 19, Falcons 16”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Christian BooherDepth Chart Calls · Blake MillerMiss · 0Booher lays out the Lions' projected depth chart for their Week 4 game at Carolina, naming starters, backups and reserves at every position, and suggests safety Bishop Fitzgerald could make his debut.
- Brooke CersosimoScore Predictions · Indianapolis ColtsClose · 64Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, including the Bears over the Jets, the Cowboys in the Battle for Texas and an upset of the Chiefs by the undefeated Raiders.
- Gennaro FiliceScore Predictions · Indianapolis ColtsClose · 76Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, including the Bills over a struggling Patriots offense, the Eagles over the Rams and the only Browns pick of the panel.
- Bobby KownackScore Predictions · Indianapolis ColtsClose · 67Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, including upsets by the Jets in Chicago and the Buccaneers over the Packers, plus the Jaguars at Cincinnati.
- Dan ParrScore Predictions · Indianapolis ColtsClose · 67Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, taking the 49ers to move to 4-0 over Denver, the Saints at home on Monday night and the Steelers in Cleveland.
- Pamela MaldonadoScore Predictions · Indianapolis ColtsClose · 67Maldonado picked final scores for all 15 Week 4 games, including Denver upsetting the unbeaten 49ers and Atlanta winning in New Orleans.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jeremy PargoScore Predictions · Washington CommandersMiss · 19Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, including an upset of the Colts by Washington in London and a Buccaneers win over the Packers.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Pittsburgh SteelersClose · 50Simms picked Pittsburgh to win a close, low-scoring Thursday night game in Cleveland by a late field goal, 20-17, and expected Joey Porter Jr.'s market value to land in the low-to-mid $20 million range, with a possible franchise tag from Dallas after the season.
- John BreechScore Predictions · Cleveland BrownsHit · 100Breech picked the Browns to edge the Steelers 19-16 on Thursday night and the Chiefs to beat the Raiders 30-23 in Week 4. He also indicated Caleb Williams would almost certainly miss Chicago's Week 4 game and that Jayden Daniels might play in London.
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Cleveland BrownsHit · 95Prisco picked the Browns to beat the Steelers 21-20 on Thursday night and the Bengals to beat the Jaguars 23-17 in Week 4.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Pittsburgh SteelersClose · 48Dajani picked the Steelers 21-17 over the Browns on Thursday night and the Broncos to win 24-23 at the 49ers in Week 4.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Pittsburgh SteelersClose · 43Dubin picked the Steelers to win 20-14 in Cleveland on Thursday night and the Texans to beat the Cowboys 24-21 in Week 4.