Patriots vs Bills predictions, graded
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2026 · Sun, Oct 4 · Final: Patriots 29, Bills 26 · Updated
Who do pundits pick in Patriots vs Bills? Of 32 pundits with a call on record, 30 take the Bills and 2 take the Patriots. 13 named a score; the median has the Bills by 8. The Patriots won 29-26, so 2 of 32 had the winner. Their graded calls averaged 25 out of 100.
Who the room took
32 pundits · each counted once, by their latest callPatriots vs Bills picks by outlet
Each pundit counted once, at the outlet or show their latest call ran on. An outlet is listed when two or more of its pundits have picked.
- Sports Illustratedall 8 Bills
- CBS Sportsall 4 Bills
- First Things First (podcast)all 2 Patriots
- The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast)all 2 Bills
The other 16 pundits write or talk elsewhere: all 16 Bills.
Patriots vs Bills score predictions
13 pundits named a score; the median call is Bills by 8, and the final was Patriots by 3.
Each dot is one pundit’s latest score call, placed at the winning margin it named. The solid bar is how the game actually finished. Hover or tap a dot for the pundit and the score.
- Gennaro FiliceBills 27, Patriots 16Miss · 31
- Bobby KownackBills 24, Patriots 17Close · 40
- Dan ParrBills 27, Patriots 21Close · 43
- Jeremy PargoBills 24, Patriots 21Close · 50
- Brooke CersosimoBills 27, Patriots 19Miss · 38
- Seth WalderBills 24, Patriots 20Close · 48
- Pamela MaldonadoBills 27, Patriots 17Miss · 33
- Eric MoodyBills 30, Patriots 27Close · 50
- John BreechBills 30, Patriots 20Miss · 33
- Nick WrightBills 28, Patriots 13Miss · 21
- Chris SimmsBills 28, Patriots 20Miss · 38
- Nick WrightBills 31, Patriots 13Miss · 14
- Tyler SullivanBills 30, Patriots 20Miss · 33
- Pete PriscoBills 30, Patriots 17Miss · 26
Patriots at Bills: how they came in
The Patriots are 1-2; the Bills are 3-0 and have won 3 straight. It is a division game. On win totals, 17 pundits put the Patriots at 10 wins on average, and 13 pundits put the Bills at 11.4 wins on average.
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY · Division game
- Record coming in
- 1-2 · 36 scored, 51 allowed
- Last games
- L 6-35 at Jaguars Week 3
- W 20-3 vs Steelers Week 2
- L 10-13 at Seahawks Week 1
- Unit ranks
- offense 11th, defense 17th of 32 (this season)
- Last season
- 14-3
- Win-total calls
- 18 pundits · average 10 · 9 to 17 wins
- The room's picks
- the side most pundits took won 3 of 3 Patriots games
- Record coming in
- 3-0 · won 3 straight · 101 scored, 78 allowed
- Last games
- W 24-16 vs Chargers Week 3
- W 41-31 vs Lions Week 2
- W 36-31 at Texans Week 1
- Unit ranks
- offense 1st, defense 12th of 32 (this season)
- Last season
- 12-5
- Win-total calls
- 13 pundits · average 11.4 · 10 to 14 wins
- The room's picks
- the side most pundits took won 2 of 3 Bills games
Patriots and Bills players to watch
Each club’s starting quarterback, leading rusher, receiver and tight end, and its sack and tackle leaders, with their 2026 regular season so far, with the latest call on each from a pundit on our leaderboard whose record beats the naive pick (69 pundits clear that bar), made since the 2026 schedule came out. “No.” is their rank there.
Patriots
- Drake MayeStarting QB · QB
2,282 passing yards · 18 TD, 11 INT · 65.4% completions · 219 rushing yards · 9 games · 6th in the NFL in passing yards
Drake Maye to finish QB1 (1–12) at his position, by fantasy points
“But yeah, he's either high-end or mid-range QB1, and everyone should be starting him. And the Drake May panic of a week ago was never justified.” the article →
Drake Maye to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
“Maye should be considered a strong top-five fantasy quarterback option with the ability to push Josh Allen for the QB1 spot if everything goes his way in 2026.” the article →
- Rhamondre StevensonRB1 · RB
399 rushing yards on 102 carries · 4 TD · 26 catches for 258 · 9 games · 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards
“Stevenson is dealing with a knee tendon issue. It won't require surgery, but Stevenson is expected to miss New England's Week 10 game against Detroit” the article →
Rhamondre Stevenson to be 1st on the depth chart
“Unless Stevenson falls off in 2026, he should remain the lead back for New England after playing at least 57% of the snaps in nine of his 14 games played in 2025.” the article →
- DeMario DouglasWR1 · WR
31 catches for 434 yards · 4 TD · 9 games · 31st in the NFL in receiving yards
DeMario Douglas to be 1st on the depth chart
“With Romeo Doubs on IR with a shoulder injury, DeMario Douglas might be New England’s de facto No. 1 receiver when the Patriots host the Packers this Sunday.” the article →
DeMario Douglas to be 3rd on the depth chart
“New England's top three wide receivers for Sunday will be Kyle Williams, Efton Chism III and DeMario Douglas.” the article →
- Hunter HenryTE1 · TE
32 catches for 361 yards · 2 TD · 9 games · 49th in the NFL in receiving yards
- Elijah PonderSack leader · LB
7.5 sacks · 14 solo tackles · 9 games · 4th in the NFL in sacks
- Christian EllissTackle leader · LB
1.5 sacks · 32 solo tackles · 9 games · 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
“Christian Ellis logged full practices. He's questionable. I think he'll play.” the article →
Bills
- Josh AllenStarting QB · QB
2,027 passing yards · 12 TD, 6 INT · 66.1% completions · 285 rushing yards · 8 games · 12th in the NFL in passing yards
Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
“Josh Allen, best quarterback in the league, continuity with the coaching, an upgrade in DJ Moore” the article →
Josh Allen to win MVP
“If the MVP vote happened today, Allen would be the winner .” the article →
- James CookRB1 · RB
814 rushing yards on 169 carries · 8 TD · 12 catches for 110 · 8 games · 5th in the NFL in rushing yards
James Cook to make the roster
“the three running backs you would expect, James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson” the article →
James Cook to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points
“James Cook, I'm all in. I think we see he sets a career high in receptions, the top three running back season.” the article →
- Khalil ShakirWR1 · WR
31 catches for 412 yards · 1 TD · 8 games · 35th in the NFL in receiving yards
Khalil Shakir to make the roster
“DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer, Skyler Bell, Trent Sherfield, the six that I have making it.” the article →
Khalil Shakir to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Even if Moore is out this week, Shakir is probably no better than the No. 2 target in the Buffalo passing attack behind surging tight end Dalton Kincaid.” the article →
- Dalton KincaidTE1 · TE
30 catches for 429 yards · 2 TD · 8 games · 32nd in the NFL in receiving yards
Dalton Kincaid to make the roster
“At tight end, I have the Bills keeping three, Jackson Hawes, Dalton Kinkade, Dawson Knox” the article →
Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (TE11, Overall RK114 | ECR vs. ADP: -14)
“if he plays limited snaps again this season and his efficiency numbers regress to career norms, Kincaid could disappoint. It's best to regard him as a high-end TE2 for fantasy drafts.” the article →
- Greg RousseauSack leader · LB
8 sacks · 17 solo tackles · 8 games · 2nd in the NFL in sacks
Greg Rousseau to make the roster
“I have the Bills keeping five. Bradley Chubb, Greg Russo, TJ Parker, Michael Hoyt, and Javon Solomon.” the article →
- Amani HookerTackle leader · S
32 solo tackles · 5 interceptions · 7 games · 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
Amani Hooker to move — “could be moved if they found a good offer”
“I'm not sure the Titans are actively shopping Hooker, but he could be moved if they found a good offer.” the article →
Every call on Patriots at Bills
1–25 of 36
Buffalo Bills 24 — New England Patriots 17
Bobby Kownack: Buffalo Bills 24-17
Buffalo Bills 27 — New England Patriots 21
Dan Parr: Buffalo Bills 27-21
Buffalo Bills 27 — New England Patriots 19
Brooke Cersosimo: Buffalo Bills 27-19
Buffalo Bills 27 — New England Patriots 16
Gennaro Filice: Buffalo Bills 27-16
Buffalo Bills 24 — New England Patriots 21
Jeremy Bergman: Buffalo Bills 24-21
Buffalo Bills 27 — Patriots 17
Maldonado's pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17
Buffalo Bills 30 — Patriots 27
Moody's pick: Bills 30, Patriots 27
Buffalo Bills 24 — Patriots 20
Walder's pick: Bills 24, Patriots 20
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
Mitch Goldich , senior editor Pick: Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
Eva Geitheim , staff writer Pick: Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
John Pluym , managing editor Pick: Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
Albert Breer , senior reporter Pick: Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
Conor Orr , senior writer Pick: Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
Matt Verderame , staff writer Pick: Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
Mike Kadlick , senior news writer Pick: Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
Gilberto Manzano , staff writer Pick: Bills
Buffalo Bills 30 — Patriots 20
Bills 30-20 over Patriots
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
Logic, stats, and research show the Bills will win this one... Pick: Bills
Buffalo Bills 28 — New England 13
I think the Bills win this game easily. And we're talking like 28-13 type of game.
Buffalo Bills 28 — Patriots 20
I'm gonna take the bills to barely cover because I do think the Patriots are gonna have a little bit of the desperation mode here... I'm going twenty eight twenty.
Buffalo Bills to beat New England Patriots
Give me the Bills as well. They had a rough showing, turning the ball over five times last weekend.
Buffalo Bills to beat New England Patriots
I just don't see a way that the New England Patriots, playing the way they have the last few weeks, can win this game.
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
I feel like the Bills, if Josh is not dinged or whatever people are saying this week... they should cruise. They should absolutely cruise
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
I don't think they're gonna be able to match points with Buffalo... I think they're supposed to lose this game, and I think they will... I think they're gonna lose this weekend.
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
The Bills are not going to let the Patriots come in and hand them their first loss in the new stadium, right? New England has struggled enough that it seems a safe assumption