Rich Eisen· Jun 26, 2025
Rich named his top five sleeper teams for 2025 — Saints, Patriots, Panthers, Raiders and, at No. 1, the 49ers — suggested Carolina could be a seven seed and the Raiders could make the playoffs, and reiterated a 15-2 Chiefs prediction with losses at Buffalo and at home to Denver while picking Kansas City to return to the Super Bowl.
“Number one on the list, the sleeper team of 2025 are the San Francisco forty niners.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
12 checkable claims — 5 surprise team calls, 3 game outcome picks, 2 playoff picks, 1 conference champion and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 42.9 out of 100, against 42.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosJun 26, 2025
Denver Broncos to beat Chiefs
“I gave it at Buffalo and home for the Broncos.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 19-22
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Conference ChampionsKansas City ChiefsJun 26, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“Are you taking them to win the AFC this year? I haven't thought about it. But if you're gonna put me on the spot right now, I'm sure. Yes.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksNew Orleans SaintsJun 26, 2025
New Orleans Saints to beat Arizona Cardinals
“they they do have a home date to start with the Arizona Cardinals... I could see them winning week one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- ARI
- score:
- 20-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksLas Vegas RaidersJun 26, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to make the playoffs
“Raiders making the playoffs maybe in the same way. Could this be the version of the Broncos from last year?”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksCarolina PanthersJun 26, 2025
Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs
“Now this one's a real possibility to shock people, be a seven seed. Right? I'm serious.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJun 26, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs
“I gave it at Buffalo and home for the Broncos.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 21-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsKansas City ChiefsJun 26, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 15 wins
“Well, behind the fifteen and two Chiefs... I gave the Chiefs two losses.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsNew Orleans SaintsJun 26, 2025
New Orleans Saints to beat expectations
“Number five, I'm gonna start with the Saints.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsLas Vegas RaidersJun 26, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations
“Number two on the list... Pete Carroll and the Raiders, we're sleeping on them.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsCarolina PanthersJun 26, 2025
Carolina Panthers to beat expectations
“number three on the list, I'm staying in the NFC South. I'm I'm talking Panthers here.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsNew England PatriotsJun 26, 2025
New England Patriots to beat expectations
“Alright. Number four, your Patriots.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsSan Francisco 49ersJun 26, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to beat expectations
“Number one on the list, the sleeper team of 2025 are the San Francisco forty niners.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
More surprise team calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Steven RuizSurprise Team Calls · Houston TexansPendingRuiz expects the Texans to repeat last year's turnaround, saying their defense and schedule will let them pile up wins and stay in the playoff race all season.
- Eric WilliamsSurprise Team Calls · Los Angeles ChargersPendingWilliams picks the Chargers as the 0-2 team to rebound, comparing it to the 2017 team that started 0-4 and finished 9-7, and suggests they will rise up on the road against Buffalo rather than collapse.
- Ben ArthurSurprise Team Calls · Houston TexansPendingArthur also lands on the Texans, arguing their defense will return to elite form and a soft upcoming stretch will get Houston's season back on track.
- Henry McKennaSurprise Team Calls · Houston TexansPendingMcKenna picks the Texans as the 0-2 team most likely to recover, favoring them over the Buccaneers because he believes the AFC South is weaker than the NFC South.
- Greg AumanSurprise Team Calls · Houston TexansPendingAuman names the Texans as the 0-2 team best positioned to turn their season around and get back into the playoff race, citing their history of slow starts and an elite defense. He also references his preseason pick of the Chargers to win the Super Bowl.
- Ralph VacchianoSurprise Team Calls · Indianapolis ColtsPendingVacchiano picks the Colts over the Texans as the 0-2 team most likely to rebound, trusting their offense with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor to keep them in the playoff race.