Bill SimmonsNov 13, 2026
Simmons named the Houston Texans as the AFC's second-half surge team and, reluctantly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the NFC's, arguing both clubs sitting at or below.500 will make a run down the stretch.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Bill Simmons Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Bill Simmons said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromWe landed on Houston for the AFC and begrudgingly Tampa in the NFC.
- Where it was said
- The Bill Simmons Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- Cousins the Savior, Sleeper Teams, a Mega-Mega-Mailbag and NFL Picks With Tom Pelissero, Danny Kelly, and Joe House
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- 1Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat expectations“I'll say Tampa. I think... Yeah. The Buccaneers are fine... We landed on Houston for the AFC and begrudgingly Tampa in the NFC.”
- 2Houston Texans to beat expectations“Here's, I think, the team we agree on for second half search, the Houston Texans, who are three and five... So our our final verdict is Houston? For me, it would be.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat expectations1 | Surprise Team Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Houston Texans to beat expectations2 | Surprise Team Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 2 calls · 2 waiting | — | — | ||||
How each call scored
2 checkable claims — 2 surprise team calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Surprise Team CallsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat expectations
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
2Surprise Team CallsHouston Texans
Houston Texans to beat expectations
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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Feenie predicted Chris Godwin stays in Tampa Bay, Josh Sweat reunites with Jonathan Gannon in Arizona, Ronnie Stanley signs with New England, Jevon Holland lands in Indianapolis, Khalil Mack joins Washington, Asante Samuel Jr. goes to San Francisco, Najee Harris to the Raiders and Bobby Wagner to Dallas.Eric Mangini · Game Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 0
Mangini picked New England to beat Green Bay by more than a field goal, flagged Tampa Bay as their upset alert over Chicago, expects Kansas City to handle the Jets, took Buffalo over Minnesota, backed Cincinnati over Atlanta in Madrid, and updated their Super Bowl to Rams–Bengals.
More surprise team calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Dan Orlovsky · Surprise Team Calls · Detroit Lions · Waiting
Named Houston and Detroit as the underrated teams in each conference, said the Texans could reach 11-6 and the playoffs, and predicted CJ Stroud's next contract will start with a seven annually, with Caleb Williams getting even more afterward.Jordan Dajani · Surprise Team Calls · Pittsburgh Steelers · Waiting
Halfway through the season, Dajani sorts the playoff field into contenders and pretenders: they suggest Joe Burrow could win MVP this year, and while they dismiss Pittsburgh as a true Super Bowl threat, they expect the Steelers to be a playoff team and a possible sleeper.Chris Long · Surprise Team Calls · Minnesota Vikings · Waiting
Previewing NFL Week 5, Chris Long expects the Jaguars to beat the Eagles in London, picks the Browns, Steelers and Texans to win their games, names the Falcons as NFC South champions, lists their current top five teams, and calls the Vikings and Texans sleeping giants. They also flag Ja'Marr Chase and Dallas Goedert as returning, Jake Majors starting at center for Philadelphia, and Baltimore having to pay Cam Jurgens 50-plus.Tyler Sullivan · Surprise Team Calls · Las Vegas Raiders · Waiting
Sullivan argues the 2-2 Packers are a hollow.500 team unlikely to climb over.500 during a tough three-game stretch, expects the Chargers to keep losing with Denver and Kansas City up next, calls the Jaguars the league's most underrated team, and says the Raiders are legitimately good despite their first loss.