Steve Deace· Nov 2, 2022

Deace laid out an aggressive 'red tsunami/red wedding' map, saying Republicans will take the Colorado and Washington Senate seats and the Colorado governorship, that Kari Lake wins in Arizona, that DeSantis wins Florida, that Grassley survives in Iowa, and that Schumer will not lose New York.

“I do not know the name of the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Colorado. And I'm going to explain to you why I'm going to predict he is going to win next week”

said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 6 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 6 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 83.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“Only difference now for me in real clear politics is Colorado and and Washington senate seats.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-co
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Michael Bennet
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Colorado
decided in the:
general
they said:
Joe O'Dea
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“You guys make Grassley? No. Oh. The most... No. Kim Reynolds is gonna carry a sorry carcass over the finish line.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-ia
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Chuck Grassley
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chuck Grassley
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“I am more convinced Kary Lake is bringing a woodshed ... imagine he's got... He's he has squeezed between Kari Lake and Ron DeSantis on a daily basis.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-az
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Katie Hobbs
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kari Lake
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“The most shocking result would be Chuck Schumer losing... that to me would be the absolutely shocking result that I would not predict, I do not believe will happen.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Charles E. Schumer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New York
decided in the:
general
they said:
Charles E. Schumer
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“On November 8, the polls in Florida will close at 8PM. At 08:02PM, Ron DeSantis will be declared the winner. Bye. Yeah. ... Bye.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“I do not know the name of the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Colorado. And I'm going to explain to you why I'm going to predict he is going to win next week”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-co
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Jared Polis
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Colorado gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Heidi Ganahl
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.