Richard Sherman#43 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 9, 2025

Sherman picked the Eagles, Vikings, Ravens and Bills in their wild-card games, named Lamar Jackson MVP, Patrick Surtain DPOY, Kevin O'Connell Coach of the Year, put Jared Verse in the top three of Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and gave a Week 18 power ranking with Kansas City first.

Said on air or in an interview · The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

5 of 7calls landed5 hits · 1 close call · 1 miss · 1 waiting

82.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls

47.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

7 of 8Settled1 still waiting

#43Richard Sherman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Richard Sherman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think it's Lamar Jackson's MVP.

Richard Sherman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast)
The episode: Richard Sherman Podcast - NFL Wild Card Round Predictions
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJan 8, 2025
GradedAug 5–Sep 18, 2026

1Kevin O'Connor to win Coach of the Year“and that's why Kevin O'Connor will likely get it”
2Philadelphia Eagles to beat Green Bay Packers“But I think there's definitely a path for the Green Bay Packers to win this game. But I think the Philadelphia Eagles pull it out.”
3Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers“how certain are you that the Baltimore Ravens are going to go in there and come out with a convincing win this weekend. / I'm pretty sure about it”
4Pat Surtain II to win Defensive Player of the Year“Pratt Certannel it might be the defensive player of the year this season... That's pretty awesome, and it couldn't happen to a better guy. I think he deserves it.”
5Power Rankings“Well, Kansas City Chiefs go one, your Detroit Lions two. Three would have to be Baltimore Ravens. I'm gonna go Baltimore at three, I'm gonna go Buffalo at four, and I'm gonna go Philadelphia Eagles at five”
6Buffalo Bills to beat Denver Broncos“I just don't think bone Knicks will play well enough to beat Josh Allen in Buffalo... But I just don't see Josh Allen losing this football game.”
7Lamar Jackson to win MVP“I think it's Lamar Jackson's MVP. I think the numbers he put up right now are historic.”
8Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (top three in voting)“they have good Jared Verst will probably be up for a Defensive Rookie of the Year... I think he'll be in the top three if he doesn't win it”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Kevin O'Connor to win Coach of the Year¹	Coach Award Picks	Kevin O'Connell won	100	0	+100
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Green Bay Packers²	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers³	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
Pat Surtain II to win Defensive Player of the Year⁴	Award Picks	Pat Surtain II won	100	0	+100
“Well, Kansas City Chiefs go one, your Detroit Lions two. Three…”⁵	Power Rankings	—	75	35	+40
Buffalo Bills to beat Denver Broncos⁶	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
Lamar Jackson to win MVP⁷	Award Picks	Josh Allen won	0	0	0
Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (top three in voting)⁸	Award Picks	—	—	—	—
8 calls · 5 hits · 1 close call · 1 miss · 1 waiting			82.1	47.9

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

8 checkable claims — 3 award picks, 3 game outcome picks, 1 coach award pick and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

7 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 82.1 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Coach Award Picks
Kevin O'Connor to win Coach of the Year
What happenedKevin O'Connell won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
award:
coach_of_the_year
coach:
Kevin O'Connell
naive:
the naive pick was Kevin Stefanski, who won it the year before
skill:
100
season:
2024
who won:
Kevin O'Connell
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Green Bay Packers
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 12): Eagles by 5.5 · favorite pick, Eagles about 2 in 3 (69%).
How this was scored
won:
PHI
score:
10-22
skill:
0
they picked:
PHI
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 11): Ravens by 9.5 · favorite pick, Ravens about 4 in 5 (80%).
How this was scored
won:
BAL
score:
14-28
skill:
0
they picked:
BAL
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
BAL
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
4Award Picks Pat Surtain II Denver Broncos
Pat Surtain II to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedPat Surtain II won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Myles Garrett, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Pat Surtain II
season:
2024
who won:
Pat Surtain II
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
5Power Rankings
“Well, Kansas City Chiefs go one, your Detroit Lions two. Three would have to be Baltimore Ravens. I'm gonna go Baltimore at three, I'm gonna go Buffalo at four, and I'm gonna go Philadelphia Eagles at five”
VerdictClose
75Close · naive 35
75this call35a naive guess40better than naive1difficulty+40skill
How this was scored
skill:
40
method:
spearman
season:
2024
accuracy:
75
baseline:
35
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
5
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
6Game Outcome Picks Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Denver Broncos
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 12): Bills by 7.5 · favorite pick, Bills 78%.
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
7-31
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
7Award Picks Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
What happenedJosh Allen woncalled Lamar Jackson
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Lamar Jackson
season:
2024
who won:
Josh Allen
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
8Award Picks Jared Verse Los Angeles Rams
Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (top three in voting)
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
82.1naive 47.9