Ben Shapiro· Nov 7, 2022

Ahead of the midterm elections, Shapiro predicted Republican wins in several marquee races: Marco Rubio beating Val Demings in Florida's Senate race, Brian Kemp defeating Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Ron DeSantis beating Charlie Crist by roughly 10 points, and Kari Lake winning the Arizona governorship.

“He's going to win against Charlie Crist by probably 10 percentage points.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 4 have settled, averaging 51.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Meanwhile, Belle Demings, who is about to lose to Marco Rubio in Florida”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Marco Rubio
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Marco Rubio
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 7, 2022
“He's going to win against Charlie Crist by probably 10 percentage points.”
Miss · 6Scored 6a naive guess scored 0+6 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
6
topic:
elections
what happened:
19.4
in their words:
probably 10 percentage points
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
6
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
10
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
19.4
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“There's a reason why she's likely to be elected governor of Arizona.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-az
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Katie Hobbs
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kari Lake
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Stacey Abrams who's about to get her butt kicked in her race against Brian Kemp in Georgia”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.