Manti Te'o#65 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 30, 2025
Te'o stands by the Broncos as AFC West champions and all three of the Chargers, Broncos and Chiefs making the playoffs, and doubles down on the Ravens winning the AFC North with Lamar Jackson returning.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 2 misses · all settled
60Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
40A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5 of 5Settlednone still waiting
What Manti Te'o said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo I'm doubling down that the Ravens will win the AFC North.
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- GMFB Thursday Hour 2: Chiefs/Bills matchup, Maye or Nix Playoffs, Preseason Predictions, and QB Comebacks
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidOct 30, 2025
- GradedAug 7–17, 2026
- 1Baltimore Ravens to win the division“the pick that I will double down on the Ravens winning winning the AFC North... So I'm doubling down that the Ravens will win the AFC North.”
- 2Denver Broncos to win the division“I am most proud of my Broncos pick as the AFC West champions.”
- 3Denver Broncos to make the playoffs“as far as the Chargers, the Broncos and the Chiefs, they are looking like all three will be in the playoff picture”
- 4Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs“as far as the Chargers, the Broncos and the Chiefs, they are looking like all three will be in the playoff picture”
- 5Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs“as far as the Chargers, the Broncos and the Chiefs, they are looking like all three will be in the playoff picture”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Denver Broncos to win the division2 | Division Winners | — | 100 | 0 | +156 | |
| Denver Broncos to make the playoffs3 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs4 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs5 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · all settled | 60 | 40 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 3 playoff picks and 2 division winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersBaltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.56difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- won the division:
- no
2Division WinnersDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win the division
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.56difficulty=+156skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 156
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- won the division:
- yes
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.56difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 10
4Playoff PicksLos Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.56difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 10
5Playoff PicksKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.56difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
60naive 40
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Carolina Panthers · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Pittsburgh Steelers · Hit 100
Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called their shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. They also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.