Ross Jackson#21 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 19, 2026
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast)Hear the original
What Ross Jackson said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromBut if you get either one of those jumps in the second year out of Tyler Shuck going into 2026, that's a playoff season for the New Orleans Saints.
- Where it was said
- Locked On Saints (podcast)
- The episode
- BREAKOUT: New Orleans Saints' Tyler Shough PRIMED For Drake Maye-Like Massive Sophomore Jump
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJan 19
- GradedAug 14
- 1Tyler Shough to record 4,601 passing yards“if I told you that Tyler Schutt comes out of his second season, completing 72% of his passes, throwing for 4,601 yards, 24 passing touchdowns in just nine interceptions”
- 2Tyler Shough to record 24 passing tds“he would jump to 24 passing touchdowns as well as nine interceptions”
- 3Tyler Shough to record 9 passing interceptions“he would jump to 24 passing touchdowns as well as nine interceptions”
- 4New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs“if you get either one of those jumps in the second year out of Tyler Shuck going into 2026, that's a playoff season for the New Orleans Saints”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough to record 4,601 passing yards1 | Player Season Numbers | 2,384 | 3.63 | 38.57 | −34.94 | |
| Tyler Shough to record 24 passing tds2 | Player Season Numbers | 10 | 0 | 46.58 | −46.58 | |
| Tyler Shough to record 9 passing interceptions3 | Player Season Numbers | 6 | 33.33 | 93.65 | −60.32 | |
| New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs4 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 100 | −100 | |
| 4 calls · 4 misses · all settled | 9.2 | 69.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 3 player season numbers and 1 playoff pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 9.2 out of 100, against 69.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
passing yardsTheir call against what actually happened.
1Player Season NumbersTyler ShoughNew Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough to record 4,601 passing yards
What happened2,384called 4,6013.63Miss · naive 38.573.63this call−38.57a naive guess=−34.94worse than naive×1difficulty=−34.94skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 1651.74
- skill:
- −34.94
- what happened:
- 2384
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 3.63
- baseline:
- 38.57
- they said:
- 4601
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 1651.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
2Player Season NumbersTyler ShoughNew Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough to record 24 passing tds
What happened10called 240Miss · naive 46.580this call−46.58a naive guess=−46.58worse than naive×1difficulty=−46.58skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 13.64
- skill:
- −46.58
- what happened:
- 10
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 46.58
- they said:
- 24
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
3Player Season NumbersTyler ShoughNew Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough to record 9 passing interceptions
What happened6called 933.33Miss · naive 93.6533.33this call−93.65a naive guess=−60.32worse than naive×1difficulty=−60.32skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 6.2
- skill:
- −60.32
- what happened:
- 6
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 93.65
- they said:
- 9
- statistic:
- passing_interceptions
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 6.2
- zero at percent out:
- 50
4Playoff PicksNew Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1difficulty=−100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NO
- skill:
- −100
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
9.2naive 69.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Doug Joubert · Roster Spot Calls · Charlie Smyth · Hit 100
Joubert projects the Saints' 53-man roster ahead of the cutdown deadline, naming every player they expect to make the team by position group, plus several players they expect to receive PUP/IR designations, and predicting Torricelli Simpkins will later be moved to the practice squad.Grant Chachere · Score Predictions · New Orleans Saints · Close 69
Chachere picks the Saints to beat the Browns 24-10, arguing Cleveland's switch to Shedeur Sanders with Deshaun Watson out tilts the game toward New Orleans.Chris Simms · Score Predictions · New Orleans Saints · Hit 93
Simms gave a predicted final score for every Week 9 game, picking the Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Lions, Giants, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, 49ers, Patriots, Seahawks, Texans, Bears and Bills, and also said they wouldn't be shocked to see Jacksonville reach the AFC Championship Game.Connor Rogers · Game Outcome Picks · New Orleans Saints · Hit 100
Rogers picked straight-up winners in every Week 9 game, agreeing with Simms on all of them, and gave a 24-20 Bills score over the Vikings on Monday night.Chris Long · Game Outcome Picks · New Orleans Saints · Hit 100
Previewing the Week 9 slate, Chris Long expects the Saints to beat Cleveland, the Colts to beat Dallas, New England to edge Green Bay, and Baltimore to beat the Chargers on Monday night. They also call the Packers a top-10 defense once Micah Parsons returns, names their top six quarterbacks of the season, and expects Brandon Ayuk to be released, with Will Lee and Trevion Henderson sidelined this week.
More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Andrew Erickson · Player Season Numbers · James Cook · Close 67
Erickson is targeting Chase Brown, Javonte Williams, Trey Benson, Ray Davis, MarShawn Lloyd, Will Shipley, Braelon Allen and Rishard Smith while fading Tyrone Tracy, Tank Bigsby and Kyren Williams, and they expect James Cook's touchdown total to settle in the eight-to-ten range.Chris Broussard · Player Season Numbers · Myles Garrett · Hit 92
Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. They also take the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.Nick Wright · Player Season Numbers · Myles Garrett · Hit 100
Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record.Nick Wright · Player Season Numbers · Myles Garrett · Hit 84
Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among their weekly picks they expect the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee.Rich Eisen · Player Season Numbers · Micah Parsons · Close 56
Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. They also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.Daniel Jeremiah · Player Season Numbers · Nick Emmanwori · Miss 0
Jeremiah walked through their mock draft 3.0, slotting Cam Ward first overall to Tennessee, Abdul Carter to Cleveland at two, Shedeur Sanders to the Giants at three and Travis Hunter to New England at four, plus roughly twenty other first-round pairings. They also called Matthew Golden the first receiver off the board, said Tyler Booker would climb back into the latter third of the first round, expected Kirk Cousins to be traded, thought Jaire Alexander's Packers days were numbered, and predicted Cam Robinson would start at left tackle in Houston.